683
FXUS62 KMFL 161153
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 736 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE REX BLOCK RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO TODAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THE STRENGTHENING UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL ADVECT SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THIS RIDGE, WHICH IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PULL THE LOW DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW INTO SOUTH FLORIDA HAS NOW BEEN
SLOWED A LITTLE FURTHER, WITH IT NOW EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST HREF AND OTHER ENSEMBLES NOW SUGGEST UPWARDS OF A 90% CHANCE
THAT H500 HEIGHTS WILL REACH 600DAM CENTERED IN TENNESSEE AS A
RESULT OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S., WHICH WOULD BE
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR 500MB HEIGHTS. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE (1028-
1030 MSLP) AS WELL AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT BREEZIER CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE SURFACE AREA FOR
TODAY. THE BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EXPERIENCED INTO
TOMORROW AS WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARRIVING. AT THAT
POINT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS. WITH
SOUTH FLORIDA BEING ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION, WE
CAN EXPECT THESE STRONGER WINDS TO BE OUT OF A NE/ENE DIRECTION.
GENERALLY EXPECTING WINDS AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS AT 20-25 MPH.
THERE REMAINS NO EVIDENCE THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM WITH THE
ENCROACHMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EITHER, SO AM NOT EXPECTING
THESE SURFACE WINDS TO BE OVERLY STRONG, BUT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
OTHER THAN WINDS, THE OTHER ITEM TO MONITOR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND POTENTIALLY EVEN SEVERE WEATHER. IN
GENERAL, FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE VIA POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION OCCURRING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW, WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENERGY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, WE SHOULD SEE THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY FOCUSING IN
SW FLORIDA, BUT SPEED CONVERGENCE AND EARLY DIURNAL PROCESSES IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SE
FLORIDA AS WELL FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. UNDER NE FLOW, THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ON THE EAST COAST WILL BE AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. AS FOR
SEVERE CHANCES, THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM
BECAUSE OF A LACK OF SHEAR AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING
LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO ON THE
WEAKER SIDE WITH A WARM ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THERE COULD BE A RISK
FOR THIS ONCE THE UPPER LOW ACTUALLY ARRIVES, BUT THAT WILL OCCUR
OUTSIDE THIS SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, THE MAIN THING
TO WATCH FOR IS GOING TO BE THE RISK FOR FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH STORMS (40-50MPH).
EVEN WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE,
THE OVERALL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FLOODING IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH. HREF LPMM GENERALLY HIGHLIGHTS A HIGH-END SCENARIO AROUND 4-5"
IN A SHORT TIME FRAME (~2 HOURS) WITH 90TH PERCENTILE QPF (A
REASONABLE HIGH-END) OF 2-4" TOTAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS COMBINED.
ADDITIONALLY, SEVERE PARAMETERS (LAPSE RATES, CAPE/DCAPE, SHEAR,
ETC.) ARE RELATIVELY BENIGN AT LEAST BEFORE THE LOW ARRIVES,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG CORE CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT SINCE MAX
CONVERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES CAN SPARK A MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT
OR TWO. NEVERTHELESS, AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THIS HAS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT HERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW 90S
STILL TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
SW FLORIDA TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BECOME
CUT-OFF AS IT SLOWLY ARRIVES INTO FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP
WILL CREATE MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND, WITH POPS CLIMBING ABOVE 80% EACH DAY
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES) AND INCREASED
FORCING ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, MOST ENSEMBLE QPF CLUSTERS ARE ONLY
SHOWING ABOUT 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
PERIOD. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULDN'T RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING IMPACTS FOR LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS. WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, INCREASED FORCING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW TRAINING STORMS
TO HIT THE SAME AREA MULTIPLE TIMES. AS THE LOW CROSSES INTO THE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND, THERE IS ALSO AN INDICATION THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND PINNED COASTAL STORMS. WHILE NOT
QUITE PERPENDICULAR TO EACH OTHER, WINDS AT 500 AND 700 MBS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SW, WHILE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE E TO
NE. THIS MAY LEAD TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PARADISE COAST, WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE WHERE
MOST ENSEMBLE QPF CLUSTERS SHOW THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE
(ALTHOUGH MOSTLY OFFSHORE).
WHILE MORE UNCERTAIN, THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ISOLATED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AS THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT 500 MB TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE -8 TO -9 C
RANGE, WITHIN THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES, ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONGER CORES
TO DEVELOP AND FOR A LOW CHANCE OF HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.
HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY THAT ACCUMULATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS MORE CONDITIONAL AND LOW CONFIDENCE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY UNIFORM RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
SOFLO (~80-85%) AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS SOFLO, WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. ONCE THE UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT TO
THE WEST ON SUNDAY, WE SHOULD RETURN TO OUR MORE TYPICAL SEA-BREEZE
DOMINATED WIND REGIME, WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY, UP 10 10-15 KTS AND
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SCATTERED SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING
COULD LEAD TO SUB-VFR CONCERNS ACROSS SOME OF THE EASTERN
TERMINALS, AND LATER TSRA ACTIVITY COULD ALSO RESULT IN THE NEED
FOR SHORT-FUSE TEMPOS. COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT
HIGH-RES MODELS STILL SUGGEST SPORADIC SHRA ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE TODAY AT 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND
INTO THURSDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH THESE RISING WINDS
AND SWELL. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 5-8 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC BY
LATE TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS BEING SEEN IN THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS. GULF SEAS WILL RISE TO 3-5 FEET. AS A
RESULT OF THESE INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
MAY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY. OTHER THAN WINDS AND SEAS, AN INCREASED
NUMBER OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL RISE BEGINNING TODAY AND INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK AS INCREASED ONSHORE WINDS AND SWELL ARRIVE DUE TO A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RISK SHOULD
DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 90 78 89 77 / 50 60 70 60
WEST KENDALL 90 77 89 75 / 50 40 70 50
OPA-LOCKA 90 79 89 78 / 50 60 70 60
HOMESTEAD 90 77 90 76 / 50 60 70 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 88 77 / 60 70 70 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 79 88 77 / 60 70 70 70
PEMBROKE PINES 89 77 88 76 / 50 60 70 60
WEST PALM BEACH 90 78 89 76 / 70 70 60 60
BOCA RATON 89 78 88 77 / 70 70 60 70
NAPLES 92 75 91 74 / 60 30 70 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...ATV
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