505
FXUS62 KMFL 171140
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 737 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY. RAINFALL CHANCES
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
- HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE
PALM BEACHES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES IN ON
THE REGION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE
STATE BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES A BIT TODAY,
HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BRISK ENE WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS
OF 20-25 MPH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR, TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COASTS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SHOW 500 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8C
AND SHOW SOME STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME STRONGER CORES ALOFT, HOWEVER THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WHEN IT
STARTS TO CROSS THE STATE, AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY AS WELL. FOR NOW IT WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT DAY. REGARDLESS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO NEXT WEEK, THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF, AND HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS MOVE
INTO THE REGION. LIGHT ESE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
INTO SOUTH FL, HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS (80-90%) ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY. WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOWS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL
LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT EACH DAY. ALL OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GOOD NEWS FOR THE ONGOING IMPROVING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND LOW TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 15Z AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHILE SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR KAPF MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY STORM
ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
HAZARDOUS NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY IN THE GULF WATERS, WITH CAUTIONARY
WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC. SEAS 3-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2-3 FT
IN THE GULF WATERS. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AS
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
A MODERATE ENE FLOW AND ELEVATED SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AND AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 78 89 76 / 60 30 70 50
WEST KENDALL 89 76 89 75 / 60 30 70 40
OPA-LOCKA 89 77 89 76 / 70 30 70 40
HOMESTEAD 89 76 90 76 / 60 40 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 77 88 77 / 80 40 70 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 88 78 89 77 / 70 40 70 40
PEMBROKE PINES 88 78 89 76 / 70 30 70 40
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 89 76 / 60 40 60 40
BOCA RATON 88 77 88 77 / 70 40 60 40
NAPLES 91 74 91 74 / 60 10 70 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CWC
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