569
FXUS62 KMFL 180505
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
105 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 102 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY. RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN
ELEVATED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
- HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE URBAN AND LOW LYING
AREAS EACH DAY.
- THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE PALM
BEACHES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FL AS WE END THE
WORK WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE
STATE FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY AND IS PROJECTED TO BE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF BY LATE SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OFF THE SE FL COAST. WEAK LOW LEVEL ENE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY. ALOFT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY.
HI-RES MODELS ONCE AGAIN ARE STRUGGLING AND LIKELY UNDERDOING THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. SCATTERED COASTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER INLAND AND SW FL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE EAST COAST IS POSSIBLE TODAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE METRO, WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR
RAIN RATES POSSIBLE IN SOME STORMS. LATEST HREF 6 HR MAX QPF SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES TODAY. WPC HAS FAR
SOUTHERN FL IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SCATTERED
COASTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR, TO MID AND UPPER 70S
CLOSER TO THE COASTS.
MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
2.0-2.2 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK STEERING FLOWS, SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE METRO. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN GULF AND THEN
EVENTUALLY LIFT UP INTO THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE, SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN UNDER A RIBBON OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE. HIGH POPS (70-90%) ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
URBAN FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY AS
SOILS REMAIN MOIST AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS ADDED ONTO THEM EACH
DAY.
WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING EASTERLY 5-10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A BRIEF WESTERLY WIND AT APF. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND
ERRATIC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
GENTLE EAST TO NORTHEAST BREEZE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. SEAS 2-
3 FT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FT OR LESS IN THE GULF. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
LINGERING SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY ALONG THE PALM BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT RISK IMPROVES FOR ALL
BEACHES THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 77 88 76 / 70 40 90 50
WEST KENDALL 89 75 88 74 / 70 40 90 50
OPA-LOCKA 89 76 89 77 / 60 40 90 50
HOMESTEAD 89 75 89 75 / 60 50 90 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 76 88 76 / 60 50 80 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 77 89 77 / 70 50 80 60
PEMBROKE PINES 89 75 88 75 / 60 50 90 60
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 89 75 / 70 40 90 50
BOCA RATON 88 75 88 75 / 70 50 80 60
NAPLES 91 74 89 74 / 70 40 80 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF
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