922
FXUS62 KMFL 191121
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 719 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY. RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN
ELEVATED THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE URBAN AND LOW LYING
AREAS EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTH FL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE EASTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAINT SIGNAL OF A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL
OFF OUR ATLANTIC COAST. FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES GENERALLY
2.0-2.2 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOWER
LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRETY OF TODAY
WITH MAYBE A BRIEF ESE COMPONENT ON SUNDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND, WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH
THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND VERY WEAK STEERING FLOWS, URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE
METRO, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. WHILE MEAN QPF VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, GENERALLY A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH, THE HREF 6 HOUR MAX QPF VALUES STILL HINT AT
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER COOL THINGS OFF. LOOK FOR UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND GET ABSORBED IN
THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK, HOWEVER A
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTH FL
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL (70-90%) THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN EACH, WITH
WPC MAINTAINING A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE METRO
EACH DAY THROUGH DAY 5.
WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER EACH DAY, TEMPS WILL
HOVER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER
THE INTERIOR TO MID AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. TEMPOS ARE IN PLACE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT COULD
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER CYCLES. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INLAND
OF THE SITES AFTER 22Z, BUT SOME SHRA COULD LINGER IN THE VICINITY
INTO THE NIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR EAST COAST
SITES, WHILE THE GULF BREEZE WILL BRING WESTERLY FLOW FOR KAPF.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WEAK VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY, WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT OR
LESS THIS WEEKEND. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS
AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 88 76 88 76 / 70 40 80 60
WEST KENDALL 88 74 88 74 / 70 50 80 60
OPA-LOCKA 89 75 89 75 / 70 40 80 60
HOMESTEAD 89 75 89 76 / 60 50 70 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 76 88 75 / 60 50 80 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 76 89 76 / 60 40 80 60
PEMBROKE PINES 88 75 88 75 / 60 40 80 60
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 89 75 / 60 40 80 50
BOCA RATON 88 75 88 75 / 60 40 80 60
NAPLES 89 74 88 74 / 50 50 70 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...ATV
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