198
FXUS62 KMFL 191851
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 223 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. RAINFALL CHANCES
REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE URBAN AND LOW LYING
AREAS EACH DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THE CENTER OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
OFF OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS CREATING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN AT THE
SURFACE. AT THE SAME TIME PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO WORK INTO THE REGION. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY ON 18Z ACARS DATA
WITH PWATS COMING IN AROUND 2.1 INCHES ALONG WITH THE LONG AND
SKINNY SOUNDING PROFILE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. BECAUSE OF THIS ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF METRO AREAS
WHICH IS ALLOWING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN TO THE WEST
OF THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, AS NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BECOMES
MAINLY OUTFLOW DRIVEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE URBAN AND LOW
LYING AREAS. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINSH LATER THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD GET CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS HEADING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTH FL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE EASTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FAINT SIGNAL OF A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL
OFF OUR ATLANTIC COAST. FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES GENERALLY
2.0-2.2 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOWER
LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRETY OF TODAY
WITH MAYBE A BRIEF ESE COMPONENT ON SUNDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND, WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH
THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND VERY WEAK STEERING FLOWS, URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE
METRO, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. WHILE MEAN QPF VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, GENERALLY A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH, THE HREF 6 HOUR MAX QPF VALUES STILL HINT AT
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER COOL THINGS OFF. LOOK FOR UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND GET ABSORBED IN
THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK, HOWEVER A
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTH FL
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL (70-90%) THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN EACH, WITH
WPC MAINTAINING A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE METRO
EACH DAY THROUGH DAY 5.
WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER EACH DAY, TEMPS WILL
HOVER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER
THE INTERIOR TO MID AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND THEY WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS IN GENERAL ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WSW THIS
AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINALS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WEAK VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY, WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT OR
LESS THIS WEEKEND. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS
AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 76 88 76 88 / 40 80 50 80
WEST KENDALL 74 88 74 88 / 30 80 40 80
OPA-LOCKA 76 89 76 88 / 40 80 40 80
HOMESTEAD 75 89 75 88 / 40 70 50 80
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 88 75 88 / 40 80 50 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 76 89 76 88 / 40 70 40 80
PEMBROKE PINES 75 89 75 88 / 40 80 40 80
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 74 89 / 30 70 40 80
BOCA RATON 75 88 75 88 / 40 70 50 80
NAPLES 74 88 74 88 / 30 50 60 70
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC
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