524
FXUS62 KMFL 201149
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 742 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE GULF. THIS LOW
WILL MEANDER IN THE AREA TODAY BEFORE LIFTING UP TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE SE US COAST BY LATE MONDAY. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES OF 2.0-2.2 INCHES. A WEAK
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS SHOULD CONCENTRATE THE BULK OF CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST METRO BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HREF MEAN QPF VALUES ARE GENERALLY A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TODAY,
HOWEVER 6 HOUR MAX QPF VALUES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 3-5
INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE METRO. THIS WILL BE A SIMILAR CASE ON
MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT BOTH DAYS.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED
INTO THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK. THEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE STATE THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WPC HAS SOME FAIRLY ROBUST RAINFALL TOTALS EACH DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK. 7 DAY TOTALS OF
5-7 INCHES ARE FAIRLY REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, FLOODING WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THE METRO AREAS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS EACH
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S OVER THE INTERIOR, TO MID AND UPPER
70S ACROSS THE METRO.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS ALL SITES. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER
16Z, WITH CHANCES FOR MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 19Z ALONG THE EAST
COAST. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNDOWN, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A GENTLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS.
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 76 88 77 / 70 50 70 50
WEST KENDALL 88 75 88 75 / 80 50 70 50
OPA-LOCKA 89 76 88 75 / 70 50 80 50
HOMESTEAD 89 75 88 76 / 70 60 70 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 76 88 77 / 70 40 70 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 76 88 77 / 70 40 70 50
PEMBROKE PINES 89 75 88 75 / 70 50 70 50
WEST PALM BEACH 89 75 88 75 / 70 30 80 40
BOCA RATON 88 74 88 75 / 70 40 80 50
NAPLES 88 74 88 75 / 40 40 60 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...ATV
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