458
FXUS62 KMFL 201839
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 222 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS EACH DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER IN THE EASTERN GULF NEAR
THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL
VERY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY STARTING TO
BROADEN OUT AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
ALOFT WILL HELP TO CONTINUE TO PUMP IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY AS
WELL. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE HEADING INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION
COMBINED WITH STORMS HAVING HIGH RAINFALL RATES, THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE METRO
AREAS OF BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY WHICH CURRENTLY REMAIN
SATURATED DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING, AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
CONTAINING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING LEAVING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS
THE EAST COAST, WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE
ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS
HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE GULF. THIS
LOW WILL MEANDER IN THE AREA TODAY BEFORE LIFTING UP TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SE US COAST BY LATE MONDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES OF 2.0-2.2
INCHES. A WEAK LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
SURFACE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD CONCENTRATE THE BULK OF
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
HREF MEAN QPF VALUES ARE GENERALLY A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TODAY,
HOWEVER 6 HOUR MAX QPF VALUES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 3-5
INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE METRO. THIS WILL BE A SIMILAR CASE ON
MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT BOTH DAYS.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED
INTO THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK. THEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE STATE THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WPC HAS SOME FAIRLY ROBUST RAINFALL TOTALS EACH DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK. 7 DAY TOTALS OF
5-7 INCHES ARE FAIRLY REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, FLOODING WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THE METRO AREAS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS EACH
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S OVER THE INTERIOR, TO MID AND UPPER
70S ACROSS THE METRO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
IN GENERAL, A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF MVFR
OR IFR ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN AND
AROUND STORMS. AT KAPF, WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WNW THIS
AFTERNOON AS GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 19-20Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A GENTLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS.
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 76 87 77 88 / 40 70 40 80
WEST KENDALL 75 86 75 87 / 40 70 50 80
OPA-LOCKA 75 87 76 88 / 40 70 40 80
HOMESTEAD 75 87 76 88 / 40 70 50 80
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 87 76 88 / 40 60 40 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 76 88 77 88 / 30 60 40 80
PEMBROKE PINES 75 87 76 88 / 40 70 40 80
WEST PALM BEACH 75 88 75 89 / 30 60 40 80
BOCA RATON 75 88 75 88 / 30 60 40 80
NAPLES 74 88 75 88 / 30 40 50 70
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC
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