650
FXUS62 KMFL 210507
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
107 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 104 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
THE WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH FL WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WORK WEEK. AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH HREF AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PWAT VALUES OF 2.1-2.3 INCHES. MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,
CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE BROADER THAN WHAT THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING. EXPECTED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO. WHILE MEAN QPF
VALUES ARE GENERALLY 0.5-1 INCH, HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POCKETS OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA, AND THAT IS BACKED UP BY THE HREF 6 HOUR MAX TOTALS
LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE, SEVERAL INSTANCES OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED AND PREPARED FOR, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO. WPC IS CARRYING
A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE METRO FOR BOTH TODAY
AND TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90, WITH THE HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN-COOLED TEMPS ARRIVE. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
MID TO LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US AND
THEN LINGERS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND
SETTLE EITHER OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL OR ACROSS THE STRAITS FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR WILL
LIKELY FILTER AT LEAST DOWN TO THE LAKE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT
WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SOUTH FL. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE POPS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND LOWER CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL IT WILL
REMAIN A WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH FL, WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF URBAN FLOODING REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS EACH DAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SE 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH AN AFTERNOON WESTERLY GULF BREEZE AT APF.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WATERS TODAY. SEAS
GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 87 77 88 77 / 70 40 80 60
WEST KENDALL 86 75 87 76 / 70 50 80 60
OPA-LOCKA 87 76 88 76 / 70 40 80 60
HOMESTEAD 87 76 88 77 / 70 50 80 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 76 88 77 / 60 40 80 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 88 77 88 77 / 60 40 80 60
PEMBROKE PINES 87 76 88 76 / 70 40 80 60
WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 89 76 / 60 40 80 50
BOCA RATON 88 75 88 76 / 60 40 80 60
NAPLES 88 75 88 76 / 40 50 70 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF
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