440
FXUS62 KMFL 280538
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
138 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 131 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
- MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS NEAR THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE NE U.S. COAST. 12Z AREA SOUNDING DATA SHOW DRY
AIR OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.0-1.3
INCH RANGE, AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 800-850 MB
LEVEL. THIS MOISTURE PROFILE WILL HELP KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
PRECIPITATION-FREE, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
OVER PORTIONS OF SE FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE THE SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
INTERACT WITH A PINNED EAST COAST SEABREEZE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN
HIGHEST POPS IN THE 20-25% RANGE ACROSS EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD
PREVENT CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO DEEP AND THUS THUNDER CHANCES
ARE QUITE LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONTAL FEATURE
LINGERS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW SOUTH
FLORIDA TO CONTINUE ENJOYING A WELL-EARNED STRETCH OF DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER, WITH BELOW-AVERAGE CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT PERIOD AND BEYOND. THIS MEANS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SPARSE COVERAGE-WISE AND BELOW 20% THROUGH MONDAY THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF AN ABNORMALLY DRY AIR MASS. DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S (AT OR BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE)
AND PWATS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES AT BEST, (ALSO AT OR
BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE). AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALSO HELP MAINTAIN ANY
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL HELP PROMOTE LIGHTER NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND INCURSION OF THE SEA BREEZES EACH
AFTERNOON. IF ANY SHOWERS WERE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE EXPECTED
ALONG THESE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST, AND
MAYBE INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THEY
COULD WARM UP FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 80S AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND
DOWN INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS FLORIDA AND A RETURN OF SOME MORE
BRISK EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO START
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES LOOKING TO CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE. ALOFT,
AS THE DECAYING NOR'EASTER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OPENS UP AND SWINGS
EAST, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. HOWEVER, SOME REMNANT VORTICITY FROM THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH MAY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE GULF. AS SUCH, SOME GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN
GULF FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. THIS FEATURE LOOKS
TO BREAK DOWN AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND ONCE RIDGING CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND STRETCH SOUTHWARD. OVERALL, CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL TREND UP, ABOUT 60 TO 70% EACH AFTERNOON. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FAVOR INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA DUE
TO THE STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AREAWIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AFTER 16Z, WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND A WESTERLY
BREEZE FORECAST FOR KAPF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH TODAY AS MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO A STRONG SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST. THUS, SEAS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH 6-8 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, AND 4-6 FEET
INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 925 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
UPGRADED THE COASTAL MIAMI-DADE ZONE TO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
BASED ON TIDE LEVELS AT VIRGINIA KEY TRENDING TOWARDS MODERATE
IMPACT LEVELS IN LINE WITH THE GAUGES IN BROWARD AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THROUGH MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 88 74 87 75 / 10 10 60 50
WEST KENDALL 88 73 86 74 / 0 10 70 50
OPA-LOCKA 88 73 87 75 / 10 10 60 50
HOMESTEAD 89 73 87 75 / 0 20 70 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 73 87 75 / 10 10 50 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 88 73 87 75 / 10 10 50 40
PEMBROKE PINES 88 72 87 74 / 10 10 60 40
WEST PALM BEACH 87 73 88 75 / 10 0 40 30
BOCA RATON 87 73 87 74 / 10 0 50 40
NAPLES 87 73 87 73 / 0 10 60 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-
172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....NMP
AVIATION...ATV
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