051
FXUS62 KMFL 281151
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 750 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
- MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ENJOY ONE LAST DAY OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
TODAY THANKS TO THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND THE PRESENCE OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. PWATS OVERNIGHT REMAINED
IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE, AND ACARS DATA AND THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWED
A SUBSTANTIAL POCKET OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-200MB. HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGEST THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED
TODAY, WITH SUSTAINED SUBSIDENCE, SUNNY SKIES, AND NEAR ZERO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
A GRADUAL TRANSITION PERIOD WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GULF; AS IT DOES, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL USHER A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS OVER THE AREA,
WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE 1.8-2.0 INCH RANGE. BY
TUESDAY, THE INFLUENCE OF THIS IMPULSE AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA (WITH POPS IN THE 50-60% RANGE).
CAMS SUGGEST ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK,
STARTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST FL AND DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 70S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND DOWN INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MUCH-
DISCUSSED NOR'EASTER DRIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES. NEAR THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
BRINGING THE RETURN OF EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE, WITH PWATS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
HOVERING NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE
CONTINUED SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FAVOR
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA DUE TO THE STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
AREAWIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AT
EAST COAST SITES, WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE AT 8-10 KTS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z. KAPF WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST AT 8-10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS RETURN OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KAPF TOMORROW BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NOR'EASTER DIMINISHES THIS WEEK AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, LINGERING NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS TODAY, GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WAVE
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FEET RANGE
TODAY. BY TUESDAY, ALL LOCAL SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1-3 FEET
RANGE. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE TUESDAY ONWARDS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES TODAY. OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO OUT-PERFORM GUIDANCE BY
A DECENT MARGIN, LEADING US TO ANTICIPATE TIDAL GAUGES TO REACH
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. AS SUCH, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE, WHILE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE, WHERE
MINOR STAGE COASTAL FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE.
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALSO CONTINUES FOR ALL ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES AS AN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 88 74 86 75 / 0 10 60 50
WEST KENDALL 88 73 86 74 / 0 10 70 40
OPA-LOCKA 89 73 87 74 / 0 0 60 50
HOMESTEAD 89 74 87 75 / 0 10 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 73 86 74 / 0 0 50 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 88 74 87 75 / 10 0 50 50
PEMBROKE PINES 88 73 86 74 / 0 0 60 50
WEST PALM BEACH 88 73 88 74 / 10 0 40 40
BOCA RATON 87 73 87 74 / 10 0 40 50
NAPLES 87 73 86 73 / 0 20 60 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-
172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....NMP/ATV
AVIATION...DPB
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