519
FXUS62 KMFL 010733
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
333 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 305 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY, WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-50%) MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS A SOMEWHAT
TRANSITIONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN US AND THE
GULF TODAY. ALOFT, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EAST THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED PIECES OF RELATIVE VORTICITY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE GULF. NEAR THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SETUP HAS PROMOTED HEALTHY
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE REGION THE LAST 24 HOURS, WHILE ALSO
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
HREF GUIDANCE AND DETERMINISTIC HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS SETUP
COULD PRODUCE TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY: ONE IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND ANOTHER ROUND LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER, THE PERSISTING CLOUD COVERAGE MAKES THAT
FORECAST A BIT TRICKY AND LOW CONFIDENCE. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, AMPLE MOISTURE AND OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN,
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMIT STORM ACTIVITY IN FAVOR OF MORE
STRATIFORM, LIGHT-TO-MODERATE RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHERMORE,
THE REFS STANDS ON ITS OWN FORECASTING A MORE EARLY-AFTERNOON-
FOCUSED STRONG-CONVECTIVE EPISODE, WHICH FURTHER COMPLICATES THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW, WENT WITH A GENERALLY MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD APPROACH
THAT FAVORS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST, A SECONDARY
ROUND OF ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT ALSO 20-30% CHANCES OF
PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY,
KNOCKED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER DOWN A HAIR FROM WHAT THE NBM CAME
IN WITH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL LACK OF STRONG CONVECTION.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT IMPULSE BECOMING ORPHANED FROM THE MEAN
FLOW AND WEAKENING TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES
EAST. SUBSEQUENTLY, MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY, GRADUALLY PUSHING THE
WEAKENED IMPULSE FURTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA, WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
CONTINUE SUPPORTING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY FOCUSED NEAR OKEECHOBEE. OVERSPREADING CLOUD COVER ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED, WHICH WOULD ALSO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.
DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE BULLISH FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS BUT OTHERWISE A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY IS LIKELY.
CLOUD COVERAGE COULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
A TEMPORARY RETURN TO THE ROUTINE SOUTH FLORIDA SUMMERTIME PATTERN
SEEMS LIKELY FRIDAY ONWARDS, AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
MAINTAIN THEIR INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EASTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST, THEN DRIFTING
WESTWARD WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
CONDITIONS COULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO COULD
BRING A COLD FRONT NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOMETIME DURING THE
EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES
COULD DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE WE GET ENHANCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GLOBAL CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODEL SUGGEST
A DEEPER, MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ENHANCED
RAINFALL CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE MEMBERS FROM THE
EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY SLOWER,
POTENTIALLY WEAKER SYSTEM WHICH WOULD FAVOR RAINFALL LATER IN THE
WEEK. FOR NOW, WE LEFT THE GENERALLY BULLISH NBM FORECAST OF
70-80% POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNTOUCHED, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEK.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AREAWIDE OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
AS EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN INCREASE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESUMING LATER THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES
FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE 17-21Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
ATLANTIC TERMINALS, AND AFTER 19Z FOR APF. VCSH MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. ESE WINDS IN THE 8-12KT RANGE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH HE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
LOCAL WATERS TODAY, GRADUALLY INCREASING UP TO 15-20 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE, AND COULD GRADUALLY BUILD INTO
THE 3-5 FT RANGE TOMORROW AS WINDS SURGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 823 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF COASTAL SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY. OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
OUT-PERFORM GUIDANCE, LEADING US TO ANTICIPATE TIDAL GAUGES TO
REACH MINOR TODAY. AS SUCH, A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE, MAINLAND MONROE, AND COASTAL
COLLIER THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH 5 PM ON
THURSDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 1.5-2 HOURS OF
THE PEAK OF HIGH TIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 86 78 88 79 / 90 40 40 50
WEST KENDALL 85 77 88 78 / 90 40 40 40
OPA-LOCKA 86 78 88 78 / 90 40 40 40
HOMESTEAD 86 78 88 78 / 90 40 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 78 88 78 / 90 50 50 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 86 79 88 79 / 90 60 50 50
PEMBROKE PINES 85 77 88 78 / 90 50 40 50
WEST PALM BEACH 87 78 89 78 / 80 60 60 50
BOCA RATON 86 78 88 78 / 90 60 60 60
NAPLES 87 75 89 75 / 60 30 60 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...17
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