369
FXUS62 KMFL 010814
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
414 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 403 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC
BEACHES.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
ENSEMBLES AND EURO SOLUTIONS DEPICT AN UPPER-LVL REGIONAL PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A TRANSITIONAL SETUP, WITH A MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH
DEPARTING FROM THE REGION AND INTO THE W ATL, WHILE A STATIONARY
REMNANT FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA DISSIPATES.
MEANWHILE, THE W ATLANTIC HIGH WILL KEEP ITS RIDGE AXIS JUST ALONG
NORTHERN FLORIDA, AND A PREVAILING ESE FLOW ACROSS SOFLO DURING
THE SHORT TERM.
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH 00Z MFL AND
SOUNDING DATA SHOWING PWATS IN THE 2.1-2.2" RANGE, BUT LATEST HIGH-
RES SOLUTIONS KEEP WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS SOFLO,
ALONG WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1K-1.8K J/KG AND LIS IN THE -3 TO -5 C
RANGE. ALL THESE PARAMETERS DEPICT A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER PROBABLY
CAPPING THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
POPS WILL SURGE INTO THE 70-80% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH OF I-75. THEREFORE, GREATEST THREAT WILL
AGAIN BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, WHILE POOR LAPSE RATES
AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL KEEP A LOW LEVEL THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW STREAMING
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS, SO SHOWERS COULD
HAPPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
HAPPEN IN THE 0.5-2.0 INCHES, BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOWER-HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOME DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE MID LEVELS AND BRINGING
POPS DOWN TO THE 40-50% RANGE.
CLOUD COVERAGE COULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
MODELS SHOW A SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
WITH THE ATLANTIC HIGH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
AND KEEPING A GENERALLY E/ESE WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE, THEN GRADUALLY PUSHING INLAND AND WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS WITH 30-40%
FOR THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS, AND UPWARDS OF 70% FOR THE GULF COAST.
FOR NEXT WEEK, A RETURN TO A MORE WIDESPREAD WET AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN IS SHOWN BY GUIDANCE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE E
CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY REACHES THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH THE
SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS POTENTIAL FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BUT
REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL OUTCOME, GUIDANCE IN GENERAL SHOW COVERAGE
BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHEST NBM POPS WELL INTO THE 80% RANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SEEMS TO STEADILY WARM UP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY AS EASTERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESUMING LATER THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES
FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE 17-21Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
ATLANTIC TERMINALS, AND AFTER 19Z FOR APF. VCSH MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. ESE WINDS IN THE 8-12KT RANGE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH HE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20
KTS RANGE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
CASE AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
3-5 FT TODAY AS WINDS SURGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP EACH DAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS.
GULF STREAM HAZARDS: NONE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF COASTAL
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON, AND FOR MAINLAND MONROE, AND COASTAL COLLIER THROUGH
NOON TODAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 1.5-2 HOURS
OF THE PEAK OF HIGH TIDE.
A HIGH RISK IF RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 86 78 88 79 / 90 40 40 50
WEST KENDALL 85 77 88 78 / 90 40 40 40
OPA-LOCKA 86 78 88 78 / 90 40 40 40
HOMESTEAD 86 78 88 78 / 90 40 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 78 88 78 / 90 50 50 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 86 79 88 79 / 90 60 50 50
PEMBROKE PINES 85 77 88 78 / 90 50 40 50
WEST PALM BEACH 87 78 89 78 / 80 60 60 50
BOCA RATON 86 78 88 78 / 90 60 60 60
NAPLES 87 75 89 75 / 60 30 60 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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