188
FXUS62 KMFL 020816
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
416 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 404 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 90S IN MANY
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LOW-MID 100S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS, INCLUDING ENSEMBLES, SHOW MID-LVL RIDGING
GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND INTO NORTHERN
FL TODAY AS A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX DEVELOPS AROUND THE MID-WEST
STATES. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH SLIDES
FURTHER WEST AND LINGERS NORTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING A GENERALLY E/SE
WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME POCKETS OF MID-LVL
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL ACT AS TEMPORARY CAPS
TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. NBM POPS DROP INTO THE 20-50% RANGE
FOR MUCH OF SOFLO TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE 40-60%
RANGE BY SATURDAY.
PWATS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE 2", WHILE 500 MB TEMPS WARM UP A
LITTLE TO AROUND -5C AND SBCAPE WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.5K-2K J/KG
RANGE. THIS WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS RATHER
LIMITED, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG OR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR/WESTERN SOFLO. GREATEST THREAT WILL
BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.
CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BREAK DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE U80S-
L90S TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY ALSO CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOW-MID 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN PREVAILING ON
SUNDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC HIGH RIDGE AXIS LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A GENERALLY E/ESE WIND REGIME IN PLACE AND
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND AND
WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT
OF POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 30-40% FOR THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS,
AND UPWARDS OF 70% FOR THE GULF COAST. THEN, A RETURN TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SHOWN BY GUIDANCE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE E CONUS.
MODELS ALSO SHOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY REACHING THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER,
REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL OUTCOME, GUIDANCE IN GENERAL SHOW COVERAGE
BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY LATE MONDAY. HIGHEST NBM POPS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80% RANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND REMAINING AROUND
THAT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM DURING THE LONG TERM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S, ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LOW-MID 100S EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
E/SE WINDS IN THE 5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT AND GUSTY
AFTER 17Z. PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC
TERMINALS, AND BETTER CHANCES OVER APF. THE SITUATION WILL HANDLED
WITH TEMPOS AS NECESSARY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS MAY
SURGE CLOSE TO 20KT AT TIMES, WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GULF STREAM HAZARDS: NONE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A HIGH RISK IF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. PLEASE FOLLOW ALL POSTED SAFETY
MEASURES AT LOCAL BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 88 79 89 79 / 30 30 40 20
WEST KENDALL 88 78 89 78 / 20 30 30 10
OPA-LOCKA 88 78 89 78 / 30 30 40 20
HOMESTEAD 88 79 89 79 / 30 40 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 89 79 / 30 40 50 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 88 79 89 79 / 30 40 50 30
PEMBROKE PINES 88 78 89 78 / 30 30 50 20
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 89 78 / 40 50 50 20
BOCA RATON 88 78 89 78 / 40 50 60 30
NAPLES 89 76 89 75 / 60 20 60 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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