951
FXUS62 KMFL 021847
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
247 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 230 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL
REMAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER THE INTERIOR
AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 90S IN MANY
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LOW-MID 100S EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
AS A MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, MID LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST IS KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
RATHER TIGHT AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BREEZY AND GUSTY EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST 18Z ACARS
DATA SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
WHILE THIS IS KEEPING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON, SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. WITH MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING ALONG WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACTING AS A
CAPPING MECHANISM, CHANCES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL GRADUALLY DIMINSH LATER THIS
EVENING, LEAVING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS, INCLUDING ENSEMBLES, SHOW MID-LVL RIDGING
GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND INTO NORTHERN
FL TODAY AS A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX DEVELOPS AROUND THE MID-WEST
STATES. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH SLIDES
FURTHER WEST AND LINGERS NORTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING A GENERALLY E/SE
WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME POCKETS OF MID-LVL
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL ACT AS TEMPORARY CAPS
TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. NBM POPS DROP INTO THE 20-50% RANGE
FOR MUCH OF SOFLO TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE 40-60%
RANGE BY SATURDAY.
PWATS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE 2", WHILE 500 MB TEMPS WARM UP A
LITTLE TO AROUND -5C AND SBCAPE WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.5K-2K J/KG
RANGE. THIS WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS RATHER
LIMITED, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG OR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR/WESTERN SOFLO. GREATEST THREAT WILL
BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.
CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BREAK DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE U80S-
L90S TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY ALSO CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOW-MID 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN PREVAILING ON
SUNDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC HIGH RIDGE AXIS LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A GENERALLY E/ESE WIND REGIME IN PLACE AND
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND AND
WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT
OF POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 30-40% FOR THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS,
AND UPWARDS OF 70% FOR THE GULF COAST. THEN, A RETURN TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SHOWN BY GUIDANCE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE E CONUS.
MODELS ALSO SHOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY REACHING THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER,
REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL OUTCOME, GUIDANCE IN GENERAL SHOW COVERAGE
BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY LATE MONDAY. HIGHEST NBM POPS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80% RANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND REMAINING AROUND
THAT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM DURING THE LONG TERM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S, ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LOW-MID 100S EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ESE WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS AND THEY COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER
19Z AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
DEVELOP NEAR KDJT AND KAPF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR COULD DEVELOP NEAR
STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS MAY
SURGE CLOSE TO 20KT AT TIMES, WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A HIGH RISK IF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. PLEASE FOLLOW ALL POSTED SAFETY
MEASURES AT LOCAL BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 88 79 90 / 30 20 20 20
WEST KENDALL 78 88 78 90 / 30 20 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 78 88 79 89 / 30 30 20 20
HOMESTEAD 79 89 79 89 / 30 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 88 79 89 / 40 40 20 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 88 79 89 / 40 40 30 20
PEMBROKE PINES 78 88 78 89 / 40 30 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 79 89 / 50 50 30 30
BOCA RATON 79 88 79 89 / 50 40 30 30
NAPLES 76 89 76 89 / 20 60 20 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC
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