927
FXUS62 KMFL 041953
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
353 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AROUND THE GULF COAST.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A PATTERN TRANSITION IS AHEAD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TO START THE WEEK AS
THE WANING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE
AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD SOME WHERE BETWEEN CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA BY MID-WEEK. THE POOLING OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NON-ZERO AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL AGAIN
REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING AROUND 100 IN
MANY AREAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALLOW A COOLING TREND OF A FEW
DEGREES PER DAY TO EMERGE FOR TUESDAY AND THEN WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS
IF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DOES INDEED DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE AROUND NORTH OR NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA,
THIS WEEK DOES APPEAR TO FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH
FLORIDA FORECAST. A CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE FROM PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE IS THE INSISTENCE OF REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AT THE
MID LEVELS TO KEEP THE FRONT STALLED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS ONE MODEL CYCLE BUT THAT IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE REPETITIVE
BOUTS OF RAINFALL THAT COULD EMERGE COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR ANY
AREAS THAT BECOME SATURATED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
EAST-SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS STILL HOLDING FOR OUR EAST
COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY IN
THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. A GULF BREEZE HAS PICKED UP AT KAPF AND
WILL HOLD THROUGH 00Z. ALONG THE GULF BREEZE FRONT, SHRA/TSRA IS
STILL A MEDIUM POSSIBILITY AT KAPF AND A TEMPO GROUP WILL REMAIN.
ISOLATED SHRA AT KDJT IS A LOW POSSIBILITY THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME L/V AFTER SUNSET AND WILL HOLD UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE PREVALING MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON IS
STARTING TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING, AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE GULF SIDE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF BREEZE FRONT HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF
PUSHING BACK OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BUT
REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 78 89 77 88 / 0 20 20 70
WEST KENDALL 77 89 76 88 / 0 20 20 70
OPA-LOCKA 78 90 76 89 / 10 20 20 70
HOMESTEAD 78 89 77 88 / 0 10 20 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 76 88 / 10 20 20 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 89 77 88 / 10 30 30 80
PEMBROKE PINES 78 89 76 88 / 10 20 20 80
WEST PALM BEACH 77 89 76 88 / 10 30 40 80
BOCA RATON 78 88 76 88 / 10 30 30 80
NAPLES 75 88 75 86 / 30 10 20 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...AK/RAG
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