119
FXUS62 KMFL 042246
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
646 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A PATTERN TRANSITION IS AHEAD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TO START THE WEEK AS
THE WANING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE
AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD SOME WHERE BETWEEN CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA BY MID-WEEK. THE POOLING OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NON-ZERO AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL AGAIN
REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING AROUND 100 IN
MANY AREAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALLOW A COOLING TREND OF A FEW
DEGREES PER DAY TO EMERGE FOR TUESDAY AND THEN WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS
IF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DOES INDEED DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE AROUND NORTH OR NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA,
THIS WEEK DOES APPEAR TO FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH
FLORIDA FORECAST. A CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE FROM PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE IS THE INSISTENCE OF REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AT THE
MID LEVELS TO KEEP THE FRONT STALLED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS ONE MODEL CYCLE BUT THAT IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE REPETITIVE
BOUTS OF RAINFALL THAT COULD EMERGE COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR ANY
AREAS THAT BECOME SATURATED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SE AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
16Z MONDAY, WITH A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE AT APF IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
METRO SO KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE PREVAILING MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING, AND THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE GULF SIDE, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF BREEZE FRONT HAVE A POSSIBILITY
OF PUSHING BACK OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BUT REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 78 89 77 88 / 0 20 20 70
WEST KENDALL 77 89 76 88 / 0 20 20 70
OPA-LOCKA 78 90 76 89 / 10 20 20 70
HOMESTEAD 78 89 77 88 / 0 10 20 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 76 88 / 10 20 20 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 89 77 88 / 10 30 30 80
PEMBROKE PINES 78 89 76 88 / 10 20 20 80
WEST PALM BEACH 77 89 76 88 / 10 30 40 80
BOCA RATON 78 88 76 88 / 10 30 30 80
NAPLES 75 88 75 86 / 30 10 20 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...CMF
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