876
FXUS62 KMFL 211127
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
727 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 725 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY FOR BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES,
AND WILL LIKELY LAST AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE PALM BEACHES.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AROUND HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST. MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAIN, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TODAY AND THURSDAY.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS, HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE AS A TROUGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE STATE AND THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY STARTS
TO NOSE EASTWARD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
OCCASIONAL COASTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
MOST, WITH SOME UPPER 80S OVER SW FL. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 60S AROUND THE LAKE TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
FORECAST GETS INTERESTING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A 500 MB LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF CUBA AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST US. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SE FL FOR MULTIPLE DAYS WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES. ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR
LIKELY ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS WELL. MEAN RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOW
3-6 INCHES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO, WITH WORST CASE SCENARIO VALUES
OVER 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE PEAK OF THE CURRENT KING TIDE
CYCLE IS ALSO THIS WEEKEND, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SERIOUS
FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE METRO AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD THE FORECAST REMAIN THE SAME
OVER THE COMING DAYS, FLOOD HEADLINES WOULD BE VERY LIKELY.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS WEEKEND ACROSS FL WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NE WINDS,
WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
OPENS UP AND LIFTS UP TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES BACK INTO
THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 60S/70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NW
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NE AFTER 15Z AND
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT. NE WINDS 15-20 KTS. IN THE GULF WATERS,
HAZARDOUS WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL BECOME CAUTIONARY BY THIS
EVENING.
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS RETURN FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, DANGEROUS WAVES OF 6-10 FT IN
THE SURF ZONE ARE LIKELY IN THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WE'RE BEGINNING TO COME OUT OF AN EBB IN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE FULL MOON AND PEAK OF THE TIDE FORECASTS
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OBSERVED WATER-LEVELS
ARE ALREADY OVER-PERFORMING PREDICTIONS AND WE'LL LIKELY BEGIN
REACHING MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AT ALL OF OUR
EAST COAST TIDAL STATIONS. IT'S LIKELY WE'LL ALSO REACH MODERATE
FLOODING LEVELS BY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY BUT CERTAINLY OVER THE
WEEKEND; EVEN BEFORE THE PEAK OF THE KING TIDE CYCLE. IT'S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT PALM BEACH COUNTY MAY EVEN REACH MAJOR
FLOODING LEVELS AT THE PEAK OF THE KING TIDE. THE NORMAL KING
TIDES ARE COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT WE'LL BE DEALING WITH A
COMPLEX UPPER/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PATTERN THAT WILL FEATURE AN
APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND CONVECTION RISING OUT OF THE
CARIBBEAN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT AND MAGNIFY THE ALREADY HIGH TIDES. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREDICTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE, BUT
ONLY CRUDELY. FURTHERMORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE IS ALSO SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF THAT COULD
FURTHER AGGRAVATE COASTAL FLOODING. IN SHORT, WE'RE HEADING INTO
WHAT COULD BE A RATHER IMPACTFUL PERIOD FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SHOULD CONSIDER PREPARATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 85 71 84 70 / 10 20 20 10
WEST KENDALL 86 70 85 69 / 10 10 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 85 70 84 69 / 10 20 20 10
HOMESTEAD 85 70 85 70 / 10 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 71 83 71 / 10 20 30 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 85 71 83 70 / 10 20 30 10
PEMBROKE PINES 85 70 84 68 / 10 20 30 10
WEST PALM BEACH 85 71 83 70 / 20 30 20 10
BOCA RATON 84 71 83 70 / 20 30 30 10
NAPLES 85 67 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CWC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page