713
FXUS62 KMFL 212313
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
713 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 708 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES,
AND WILL LIKELY LAST AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE PALM BEACHES.
- MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST. A LOW, 10-30% CHANCE OF MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAIN, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. WE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A LIKELY VERY IMPACTFUL KING TIDE COASTAL FLOODING
EVENT. IN THIS UPDATE, WE WILL HIGHLIGHT ANY NOTABLE REVISIONS TO
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM FORECASTS.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (TODAY AND TOMORROW), OUR AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WITH PWATS
RUNNING BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NEGLIGIBLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BELOW 15% AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. COASTAL FLOODING TODAY AND
TOMORROW COULD OVERPERFORM PREVIOUS FORECAST LEVELS, WITH MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. WE UPGRADED THE
COASTAL STATEMENT UP TO AN ADVISORY, AND THOSE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY WORSENING
LATER INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE REACH THE PEAK OF THE KING TIDE
CYCLE.
ONCE WE GET INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD (FRIDAY ONWARDS), THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL BE SEEING A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN FRIDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT
BEING SAID, THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM A DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING WHERE THE POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. THIS INTERACTION WILL PROMOTE CONVERGENCE AND STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD DRIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FURTHER NORTH AND/OR EAST THAT THIS INTERACTION
SETS UP, THE LOWER THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR OUR AREA, BUT ANY SHIFT
WEST OR SOUTH COULD LEAD TO THE HIGHER-END RAINFALL VALUES DISCUSSED
IN LAST NIGHT'S LONG TERM DISCUSSION. THIS, COMBINED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED KING TIDE COASTAL FLOODING EVENT AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
AND SURF CONDITIONS, COULD EXACERBATE FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TODAY AND THURSDAY.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS, HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE AS A TROUGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE STATE AND THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY STARTS
TO NOSE EASTWARD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
OCCASIONAL COASTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
MOST, WITH SOME UPPER 80S OVER SW FL. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 60S AROUND THE LAKE TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
FORECAST GETS INTERESTING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A 500 MB LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF CUBA AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST US. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SE FL FOR MULTIPLE DAYS WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES. ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR
LIKELY ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS WELL. MEAN RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOW
3-6 INCHES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO, WITH WORST CASE SCENARIO VALUES
OVER 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE PEAK OF THE CURRENT KING TIDE
CYCLE IS ALSO THIS WEEKEND, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SERIOUS
FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE METRO AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD THE FORECAST REMAIN THE SAME
OVER THE COMING DAYS, FLOOD HEADLINES WOULD BE VERY LIKELY.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS WEEKEND ACROSS FL WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NE WINDS,
WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
OPENS UP AND LIFTS UP TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES BACK INTO
THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 60S/70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE AT
TIMES, PRIMARILY AT EAST COAST TERMINALS. BREEZY NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW WITH THE CONTINUED
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHRA. HIGHER WIND GUSTS (20-25 KNOTS) COULD
BE REALIZED IN AND AROUND SHRA ACTIVITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT. NE WINDS 15-20 KTS. IN THE GULF WATERS,
HAZARDOUS WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL BECOME CAUTIONARY BY THIS
EVENING.
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS RETURN FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, DANGEROUS WAVES OF 6-10 FT IN
THE SURF ZONE ARE LIKELY IN THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WE'RE BEGINNING TO COME OUT OF AN EBB IN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE FULL MOON AND PEAK OF THE TIDE FORECASTS
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OBSERVED WATER-LEVELS
ARE ALREADY OVER-PERFORMING PREDICTIONS AND WE'LL LIKELY BEGIN
REACHING MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AT ALL OF OUR
EAST COAST TIDAL STATIONS. IT'S ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
PALM BEACH COUNTY MAY EVEN REACH MAJOR FLOODING LEVELS AT THE
PEAK OF THE KING TIDE.
THE NORMAL KING TIDES ARE COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT WE'LL BE
DEALING WITH A COMPLEX UPPER/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PATTERN THAT
WILL FEATURE AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND CONVECTION
RISING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND MAGNIFY THE ALREADY HIGH
TIDES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREDICTIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE, BUT ONLY CRUDELY. FURTHERMORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE IS ALSO SOMETHING TO BE AWARE
OF THAT COULD FURTHER AGGRAVATE COASTAL FLOODING. IN SHORT, WE'RE
HEADING INTO WHAT COULD BE A RATHER IMPACTFUL PERIOD FOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SHOULD CONSIDER PREPARATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 83 71 82 / 10 30 30 50
WEST KENDALL 70 84 70 84 / 0 20 20 50
OPA-LOCKA 70 83 70 83 / 10 30 30 40
HOMESTEAD 70 84 70 83 / 0 20 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 82 71 82 / 20 30 40 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 83 71 82 / 20 30 30 40
PEMBROKE PINES 70 83 70 83 / 10 30 30 40
WEST PALM BEACH 71 82 71 82 / 30 20 30 30
BOCA RATON 71 82 71 82 / 20 30 40 40
NAPLES 67 83 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...HADI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page