851
FXUS62 KMFL 221745
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS FOR
ALL LOCAL WATERS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES,
AND WILL LIKELY LAST AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE PALM BEACHES.
- MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST. A LOW, 10-30% CHANCE OF MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAIN, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS, EMBEDDED IN THE
GENERAL N-NE WIND FLOW, IS SKIRTING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THIS
MORNING AND HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND
OFFSHORE THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. HI-RES/SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO FAIRLY WELL, AND DEPICT A SOUTHWARD
SPREAD OF THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
BUT SKIRTING THE EAST COAST METRO FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST POPS ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING.
NOS TIDE GAUGES ARE PEAKING IN THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT THE
CURRENT HIGH TIDE, EXCEPT BORDERING ON MODERATE AT LAKE WORTH
PIER. THESE LEVELS CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE, SO CURRENT
EXPECTATION OF MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS WITH UPCOMING HIGH TIDES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY, AND
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS, THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY CONTINUES TO NOSE
EASTWARD AND A TROUGH IS SLOWLY DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY. LATEST 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS, WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE NNE AND GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SW FL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COMFORTABLE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S AROUND THE LAKE REGION, THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON FRIDAY AND AN UPPER LOW STARTS
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE US COAST LATE IN THE DAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE WITH PWAT VALUES NOSING UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT, BUT
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE INCREASED ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. COULD EVEN SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. NE WINDS WILL BE PICK UP A
BIT ON FRIDAY, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MULTI HAZARD
EVENT WILL BE TAKING SHAPE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS IN THE
REGION AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN US.
ENHANCED MOISTURE AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS,
HEAVY AT TIMES, TO SE FL FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE MEAN
QPF VALUES HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, 1-3 INCHES
IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
END AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS RAIN COMBINED WITH THE
HIGHER KING TIDES THIS WEEKEND MAY PRESENT SOME FLOODING ISSUES. WPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS THE METRO BOTH DAYS THIS
WEEKEND. THE OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. NE WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH ON
SATURDAY AND 30-40 MPH ON SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND WITH IT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE SCATTERED COASTAL
SHOWERS AROUND BOTH DAYS, BUT THE RAINFALL FLOODING THREAT WILL
DECREASE.
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S, AND LOW
TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE 60S/70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
ALONG THE EAST COAST. A PATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING
INLAND BETWEEN FXE AND MIA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS. STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY AND THEN BACK TO N OR NNW OVERNIGHT BEFORE TURNING NE AGAIN
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT. NE WINDS 15-20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL
LOCAL WATERS.
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS RETURN FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WE'RE BEGINNING TO COME OUT OF AN EBB IN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE FULL MOON AND PEAK OF THE TIDE FORECASTS
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OBSERVED WATER-LEVELS
ARE ALREADY OVER-PERFORMING PREDICTIONS AND WE'LL LIKELY BEGIN
REACHING MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AT ALL OF OUR
EAST COAST TIDAL STATIONS. IT'S ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
PALM BEACH COUNTY MAY EVEN REACH MAJOR FLOODING LEVELS AT THE
PEAK OF THE KING TIDE.
THE NORMAL KING TIDES ARE COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT WE'LL BE
DEALING WITH A COMPLEX UPPER/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PATTERN THAT
WILL FEATURE AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND CONVECTION
RISING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND MAGNIFY THE ALREADY HIGH
TIDES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREDICTIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE, BUT ONLY CRUDELY. FURTHERMORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE IS ALSO SOMETHING TO BE AWARE
OF THAT COULD FURTHER AGGRAVATE COASTAL FLOODING. IN SHORT, WE'RE
HEADING INTO WHAT COULD BE A RATHER IMPACTFUL PERIOD FOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SHOULD CONSIDER PREPARATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 83 72 82 / 30 50 40 60
WEST KENDALL 70 84 70 83 / 20 50 30 50
OPA-LOCKA 70 83 71 83 / 30 50 40 60
HOMESTEAD 70 84 71 83 / 30 50 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 82 72 82 / 40 50 50 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 82 72 82 / 30 50 50 60
PEMBROKE PINES 70 83 71 83 / 30 50 40 60
WEST PALM BEACH 70 82 72 82 / 40 50 40 60
BOCA RATON 71 82 72 82 / 40 50 50 70
NAPLES 66 84 67 84 / 0 20 0 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
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