250
FXUS62 KMFL 222327
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
727 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 722 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
- MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH EACH HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METROS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- STRONG WINDS, WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
- DANGEROUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
UPPER LEVEL OBSERVATIONS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED
CONUS WAVE PATTERN WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY, A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND A TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S., THE GULF, AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL EMBEDDED IN THE
EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE
COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH SUB-TROPICAL
STORM JOSEPHINE SITTING OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST. A LOCAL
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS INVERTED TROUGHING ALONG THE SC/GA/FL
COASTLINE, AS WELL AS OFF THE WESTERN FL COAST. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY DUE TO THE THERMAL GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE GULF STREAM AND
ADJACENT WATERS/LAND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST, AND THE ANOMALOUSLY
WARM EASTERN GULF WATERS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF FL. WV IMAGERY,
SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS, AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE QUITE A
BIT OF DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE MOSTLY
CONTINENTAL FLOW REGIME BENEATH THE RIDGE/TROUGH INTERFACE. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A NOTABLE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ROUGHLY CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE FLOW STARTS TO VEER
AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE. WEAK, BUT MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT
RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDINESS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LAST NIGHT
AND HAS YET TO SCATTER MUCH. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED FROM THE
PALM BEACH COAST THROUGH MIAMI-DADE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED AREA OF
CONVERGENCE JUST OFFSHORE, AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED, BUT MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS THEY TRY TO
MOVE INLAND. WHILE THE SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
WATERS, CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM IS STILL ADVECTING WESTWARD
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
A BAND OF HIGH PV ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
FLORIDA, AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WILL ADVECT NORTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STORM. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE, THAT STRETCHES FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, WILL DROP
INTO THE SW ATLANTIC, FL, AND THE EASTERN GULF TOMORROW. LOCALLY,
THIS WON'T HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THE LOW
TO MID TROPOSPHERIC DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVENT MUCH (IF
ANY) OF A SURFACE RESPONSE. INSTEAD, A CONTINUED PATTERN SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER, WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
THIS IS WHERE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS START TO STRUGGLE WITH AGREEING ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. WE'LL FOCUS MOSTLY ON HOW
IT RELATES TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION FOR THIS DISCUSSION. A THIRD
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SECOND
SHORTWAVE MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTHERN FL AND THE SW ATLANTIC. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES ARE UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER THIS SOUTHERNMOST SHORTWAVE
WILL CUTOFF FROM THE MEAN NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, OR REMAIN AN OPEN
WAVE THAT STAYS CONNECTED WITH THE LATTER SHORTWAVE AND NORTHERN
STREAM. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS SEEM TO BE (1) HOW LOW OF A
LATITUDE DOES THIS UPPER LOW REACH (2) IS THERE A PATHWAY FOR ANY
RESULTANT SURFACE FEATURE TO DRAW NEARER TO THE EAST COAST OF FL.
THE FURTHER SOUTH THE TROUGH REACHES, THE FURTHER SOUTH THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL MAY REACH (CONSIDERING ALSO THE NEXT POINT). IF THE
TROUGH CUTS OFF FULLY (OR EVEN SOMEWHAT) IT MAY OPEN A PATHWAY FOR
ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO GET PULLED BACK WESTWARD
BEFORE EVENTUALLY GETTING PUSHED INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST.
AS FAR AS THE ANTICIPATED RAIN AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED, THE BEST
UTILITY WE HAVE AT THIS MOMENT TO ASSESS POTENTIAL IMPACTS IS THE
WPC QPF CLUSTERING TOOL. FOR SEVERAL DAYS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CLUSTERED INTO A HIGHER QPF AND LOWER QPF SCENARIO THAT'S LIKELY
RELATED TO HOW FAR WEST ANY SURFACE FEATURE MAY BE ABLE TO REACH.
FURTHER, THE HIGHER QPF SOLUTION HAS A NORTH/SOUTH SCENARIO THAT'S
LIKELY TIED TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH REACHES. UNFORTUNATELY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PRETTY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN THE HIGHER/LOWER QPF SCENARIO, AND ALSO SPLIT WITHIN
THE HIGHER QPF SCENARIO AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL.
HERE'S WHAT WE CAN SAY:
* OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE EAST COAST
METROS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET, WITH AT LEAST WIDESPREAD 1-2" OF
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO MEAN LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THOSE VALUES.
* THERE'S A MEDIUM (50%) CHANCE THAT THE WIDESPREAD AVERAGE AMOUNTS
COULD BE CLOSER TO 3-5", WITH AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR TWO
POTENTIALLY RECEIVING 7-9".
* IF THE HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO PANS OUT IT'S TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY
WHERE THESE AMOUNT MAY FALL. IT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL TO HOMESTEAD.
ANOTHER THREAT TO CONSIDER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE'S A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) THAT ALONG
THE EAST COAST METROS SUSTAINED WINDS COULD REACH 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED DOWNED LIMBS AND
FRONDS AND DISPLACEMENT OF UNSECURED LIGHT-WEIGHT ITEMS.
WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS MAY SUBSIDE A
BIT PAST MONDAY, WE'RE STILL UNLIKELY TO DRY OUT COMPLETELY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOLID EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS WOULD RESULT PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NNE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME NNW ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
BACK TO THE NE AFTER 15Z FRIDAY AND WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. THEN, DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS AS STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED. SOLID ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED, WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 6-9 FEET IN THE
GULF AND 10-14 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED; PRIMARILY ACROSS ATLANTIC
WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE THREAT FOR BREAKERS OVER 6 FEET MAY
BRIEFLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SUNDAY
AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR A DISCUSSION ON THE UPCOMING KING TIDE
CYCLE AS WELL. BOTTOM LINE, IT'S A DANGEROUS TIME TO ENTER THE
WATER (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST), AND IT'S EXPECTED TO
BE WORST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
TIED WITH, IF NOT EDGING OUT, THE EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAIN
IS THE THREAT FOR MODERATE OR HIGHER COASTAL FLOODING AS WE DRAW
CLOSER TO THE PEAK OF THIS KING TIDE CYCLE. NOT ONLY WILL WE REACH
THE PEAK OF THE CYCLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE THE PEAK KING TIDE OF THE SEASON AS WELL. UNFORTUNATELY THIS PEAK
ALSO COMES AT THE TIME OF GREATEST ONSHORE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
IMPACTS OF THE SALTWATER FLOODING, EITHER FROM IMPEDING DRAINAGE OF
HEAVY RAIN OR ADDING A SURGE COMPONENT TO THE PEAK TIDES. IT IS
WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE THAT MAJOR CATEGORY FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AND EVEN IF THE GAUGES DON'T QUITE REACH
MAJOR LEVEL, IT'S POSSIBLE THE IMPACTS WOULD BE THE SAME IF
FRESHWATER FLOODING IS ADDING TO THE SALTWATER FLOODING. ALL
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS DOWN THE EAST COAST SHOULD BE PREPARING FOR THE
HIGHEST TIDAL IMPACTS OF THE SEASON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 84 72 83 / 20 40 40 50
WEST KENDALL 70 85 71 84 / 10 40 40 40
OPA-LOCKA 71 84 72 84 / 20 40 40 50
HOMESTEAD 70 84 71 84 / 20 40 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 82 72 82 / 30 50 50 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 83 72 83 / 30 50 50 50
PEMBROKE PINES 70 84 71 84 / 20 40 40 50
WEST PALM BEACH 71 83 72 83 / 20 50 40 50
BOCA RATON 71 82 72 82 / 30 50 50 60
NAPLES 65 84 67 85 / 0 10 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CWC
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