306
FXUS62 KMFL 231756
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
156 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 154 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH EACH HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METROS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- STRONG WINDS, WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
- DANGEROUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
COASTAL SHOWERS ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
NUISANCE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE
CONTINUES TO SET UP ALONG THE MORE UNSTABLE GULF STREAM. MID
LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE RECENT MFL UPPER AIR SOUNDING
INDICATE THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB, SO
MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK AND LOW TOPPED. THE BETTER
MOISTURE CONTENT LOOKS TO BE FURTHER EAST ALONG A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAHAMAS. BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7
C/KM AND LIMITED INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. POPS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL ZONES WILL BE
BETWEEN 50% AND 60% THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE INLAND, CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED, AT AROUND 30% FOR THE EASTERN METRO
AREAS AND LESS THAN 20% FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
WITH SHOWERS PINNED ALONG THE COAST, A FEW AREAS MAY SEE UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN. HOWEVER, THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP MOST ACTIVITY PRETTY WEAK. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, CHANCES OF SEEING GREATER THAN AN INCH ARE ONLY
ABOUT 30% FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE, THE RISK OF URBAN FLOODING
WILL BE VERY LOW (AT LEAST RELATED TO PRECIPITATION, KEEP READING
FOR MORE INFO ON THE KING TIDES).
ALOFT, MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS FINDS ITSELF IN DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGHING, WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE VORTICITY MAXIMA
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL RESULT
IN STRENGTHENING WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
WHILE THESE WINDS WON'T BE QUITE IMPACTFUL YET, THEY WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, WHICH WHEN PAIRED
WITH INCREASED SWELL AND WAVE ACTIVITY MAY HELP INCREASE THE RISK
OF URBAN TIDAL FLOODING ALONG METRO DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH
DURING THE PEAK KING TIDES.
ON SATURDAY, THE BASE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA, BRINGING ALONG WITH IT A SWATH OF VORTICITY THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER, THE BETTER DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE THERE IS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ANOTHER PLAYER ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA COAST.
SOME ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A CUT
OFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SPACE COAST ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS MOMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAY TRAVEL INTO OUR REGION. FOR NOW,
POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON REMAIN LOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
(LESS THAN 20%) OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE
COASTAL CONVERGENCE STORMS KEEP CHANCES HIGHER. HREF ENSEMBLES LPMMS
KEEP ALL THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE AND TO THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, WITH SOLUTIONS ONLY SHOWING ABOUT 0.5 TO 1
INCH OF RAIN AT MOST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN GREATER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
SURGE INTO THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL ATLANTIC TROUGH OR CUT OFF
LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME SOLUTIONS
DISPLAY THIS SYSTEM STALLING AS FAR SOUTH AS CUBA, WITH A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DON'T SEEM ALL TOO IMPRESSIVE,
WITH VALUES CLIMBING UP TO AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES, WHICH IS
BETWEEN THE MEAN AND 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO WHILE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGH, BETWEEN 85% AND 95% FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND COASTAL ATLANTIC AREAS, QPF CONTINUES TO
TREND DOWN AMONG GUIDANCE. ENSEMBLE QPF CLUSTERS VARY BOTH
SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
UPPER LOW FEATURE. SOME SOLUTIONS KEEP THE HIGHEST QPF OFFSHORE,
WHILE OTHERS BRING IT ONSHORE BUT NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ONE
SCENARIO BRINGS A SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN
METRO AREAS, BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL
CONVERGENCE STORMS TO BE PINNED ALONG THE COAST, WITH BRISK
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE NEARLY OPPOSITE TO THE STRONG
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 700 MB AND 500 MB HEIGHTS.
SO, IF SEVERAL STORMS WERE TO BE PINNED ALONG THE COAST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS, LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING FOR LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ARE ONLY AT AROUND 45%, WITH
HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY STAYING OVER THE WATERS.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AND SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE FLUNG
ABOUT IN WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND
FOR THIS WEEKEND IS THE COMBINATION OF THE KING TIDE WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. ALL THESE FACTORS TOGETHER MAY
RAISE TIDE AND WATER LEVELS INTO THE MODERATE FLOOD CATEGORY FOR
COASTAL URBAN AREAS ALONG DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH. ROADWAYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BE FLOODED FOR SEVERAL HOURS, ESPECIALLY
IF THE HIGH TIDE COINCIDES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. REMEMBER, TURN
AROUND, DON'T DROWN. NEVER DRIVE, WALK, OR WADE, OVER FLOODED
AREAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY WINDS AND COASTAL SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DROP
TO AROUND 40% FOR EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE GULF AND
SLIDE OVER FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE OF BRIEF BOUTS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH
PASSING ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND STORMS. BREEZY NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
MOST OF THE TIME WITH GUSTS REACHING OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH CONDITIONS PROGRESSIVELY WORSENING OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE FOR
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS ALL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT A SWATH OF STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY
EVENING MAY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC. PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 30 KT WINDS CLIMBS TO AROUND
45% ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PEAK
AROUND 6-9 FEET IN THE GULF AND 10-14 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH SEAS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BEFORE
CONDITIONS FINALLY START TO RELAX ON WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURF HEIGHTS UP TO 6 FEET
MAY BE POSSIBLE THOUGH SATURDAY FOR THE PALM BEACHES. ON SUNDAY,
DANGEROUS SURF HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FEET MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN PALM BEACH AREA. STRONG ONSHORE WIND FLOW AND HIGH SEAS MAY
COMBINE WITH KING TIDES TO INCREASE THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR A DISCUSSION ON THE UPCOMING KING TIDE CYCLE AS
WELL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
TIED WITH, IF NOT EDGING OUT, THE EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAIN
IS THE THREAT FOR MODERATE OR HIGHER COASTAL FLOODING AS WE DRAW
CLOSER TO THE PEAK OF THIS KING TIDE CYCLE. NOT ONLY WILL WE REACH
THE PEAK OF THE CYCLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE THE PEAK KING TIDE OF THE SEASON AS WELL. UNFORTUNATELY THIS PEAK
ALSO COMES AT THE TIME OF GREATEST ONSHORE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
IMPACTS OF THE SALTWATER FLOODING, EITHER FROM IMPEDING DRAINAGE OF
HEAVY RAIN OR ADDING A SURGE COMPONENT TO THE PEAK TIDES. IT IS
WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE THAT MAJOR CATEGORY FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AND EVEN IF THE GAUGES DON'T QUITE REACH
MAJOR LEVEL, IT'S POSSIBLE THE IMPACTS WOULD BE THE SAME IF
FRESHWATER FLOODING IS ADDING TO THE SALTWATER FLOODING. ALL
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS DOWN THE EAST COAST SHOULD BE PREPARING FOR THE
HIGHEST TIDAL IMPACTS OF THE SEASON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 84 72 84 / 30 20 30 70
WEST KENDALL 70 85 71 85 / 20 10 10 60
OPA-LOCKA 71 84 71 84 / 20 30 30 70
HOMESTEAD 70 84 71 85 / 30 20 20 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 83 72 83 / 30 40 50 90
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 83 73 83 / 20 40 50 90
PEMBROKE PINES 70 84 70 84 / 20 30 40 80
WEST PALM BEACH 72 83 72 82 / 20 30 60 90
BOCA RATON 72 83 72 83 / 20 40 60 90
NAPLES 66 84 68 85 / 0 0 0 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....NMP
AVIATION...RAG
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