914
FXUS62 KMFL 240532
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
132 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH EACH HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METROS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- STRONG WINDS, WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
- DANGEROUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. COASTAL SHOWERS WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COASTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
REMAIN ONE METEOROLOGICAL CONCERN TODAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE SOME
DRIER AIR MAY HELP LIMIT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, THE AREA REMAINS
FAIRLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL. THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WILL
PRESENT SIGNIFICANT DRAINAGE CHALLENGES ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SETTLE DEEPER INTO THE REGION AS A LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP AT THE
SURFACE TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL IN TURN CAUSE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND FIELD TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST COULD ENCOUNTER WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25-30 MPH
ON SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE A WIND ADVISORY WERE TO BECOME NECESSARY.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS, THE INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAT MAY BE ENABLED COULD BE SLOW-MOVING IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
WPC KEEPS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WITH A MARGINAL RISK
FLANKING THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY AS OF THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES WHICH RUNS IN THE
REALM OF 75 TO 99TH PERCENTILE IN THE SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE OCTOBER IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BUT THE SURFACE FEATURE REMAINS OVER AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND AT THE SURFACE FROM THE GULF WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY HELP LOWER THE COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION BUT THE PERSISTENTLY EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT WILL
KEEP MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH POPS LESS THAN 15% FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE ANY MENTIONABLE WEATHER. MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER THE GULF
STREAM WATERS, PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO REACHES THE COAST.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT ALL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH CONDITIONS PROGRESSIVELY WORSENING OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE FOR
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS ALL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT A SWATH OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING ON
SUNDAY EVENING MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED GIVEN
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 30 KT WINDS CLIMBS TO AROUND 40-50% ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 6-9
FEET IN THE GULF AND 10-14 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH SEAS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BEFORE CONDITIONS FINALLY
START TO RELAX ON WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURF HEIGHTS UP TO 6 FEET
MAY BE POSSIBLE THOUGH SATURDAY FOR THE PALM BEACHES. ON SUNDAY,
DANGEROUS SURF HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FEET MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN PALM BEACH AREA. STRONG ONSHORE WIND FLOW AND HIGH SEAS MAY
COMBINE WITH KING TIDES TO INCREASE THE THREAT OF MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR A DISCUSSION ON THE UPCOMING KING TIDE
CYCLE AS WELL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED COASTAL WATER LEVELS DUE TO KING
TIDES, PERSISTENT ONSHORE WIND FLOW, AND LOCALIZED POCKETS OF THE
AREA THAT CAN EASILY BECOME SATURATED DUE TO ANTECEDENT RAINFALLS
CREATES A CONCERN FOR FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. ADDING IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
WHICH COULD MATERIALIZE DUE TO THE KING TIDES ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST, IT COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR WATER TO DRAIN FROM SOME COASTAL
AREAS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE WINDOW
AROUND LOW TIDE COMES. HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE AS A DRIER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY STILL MAKES THE
TIMING A BIT PREMATURE, BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED IF THE
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 71 84 74 / 10 40 60 70
WEST KENDALL 85 70 85 74 / 10 20 50 40
OPA-LOCKA 85 71 85 74 / 10 40 60 70
HOMESTEAD 84 70 85 73 / 10 30 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 71 83 73 / 20 60 70 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 83 71 84 74 / 20 60 70 80
PEMBROKE PINES 85 71 85 74 / 10 50 60 70
WEST PALM BEACH 83 71 83 73 / 20 70 80 80
BOCA RATON 82 71 83 73 / 20 70 80 80
NAPLES 84 68 86 69 / 0 0 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ168.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...NMP
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