059
FXUS62 KMFL 241810
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 209 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH EACH HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METROS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- STRONG WINDS, WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
- DANGEROUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
SOUTH FLORIDA FINDS ITSELF AT THE BASE OF A POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR SOUNDING
OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE STATE INDICATE THAT DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA, KEEPING
CONDITIONS MORE DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TOMORROW, UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MORE UNSTABLE GULF STREAM WATERS.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY HUG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE DURING THE
DAY, BUT MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINS FURTHER SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CLOSER TO A
STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR EASTERN CUBA, WHERE A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING. HOWEVER, HERE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA, MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL ACTUALLY TREND DRIER ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL DROP FROM A NEAR AVERAGE 1.6 INCHES, TO A BOTTOM TENTH
PERCENTILE OF 0.8 TO 0.9 INCHES. MODELS HINT AT THE DRIER AIR
REACHING THE SURFACE THIS TIME, WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 60S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT, POPS WILL BE
VERY LOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, LESS THAN 10% FOR MOST
AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY AIR, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHOWERS FROM BEING ABLE TO MATURE OR DEVELOP. COASTAL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE ANYTHING GREATER THAN HALF AN INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD HAS
QUITE HONESTLY DECREASED. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH A SOLUTION FOR THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE
COMING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT AMONG
GUIDANCE AS TO WEATHER THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA COASTLINE, OR
WHETHER IT STAYS AN OPEN WAVE AND JOIN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
TROUGHING PATTERN. SOLUTIONS ALSO DIFFER AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR EAST AND SOUTH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THIS HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL SOUTH
FLORIDA MAY GET. A DEEPER, SLOWER, AND MORE WESTERLY TRACKING
SYSTEM WOULD INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE. HOWEVER,
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. WPC QPF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW THAT 1 TO
1.5 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY WOULD BE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SCENARIO
TO PLAY OUT. YET, THERE IS ONE CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS THAT SHOWS A
SCENARIO OF 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE (BUT THIS IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO). OVERALL, BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND INCREASED
STREAMS OF VORTICITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL FAVOR GREATER SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY. POPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70% TO 80% RANGE OVER
THE EASTERN METRO. COASTAL CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
STORMS TO FOCUS ALONG THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS, SO A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXITS FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING ALONG
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR ALL AREAS. BREEZY WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH HIGH SURF AND
UNUSUALLY HIGH TIDES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN
MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR COASTAL AREAS
ALONG DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. REMEMBER TO NEVER
DRIVE, WALK, OR WADE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
BY THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT ROLLS AROUND, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA COASTLINE. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WILL ALREADY BE HOWLING AT 30 MPH STARTING ON SUNDAY, BUT THE
STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS INLAND LOOK TO BE MORESO ON MONDAY. SOME
AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THERE IS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS
WILL AT LEAST REACH 25 MPH FOR MANY LOCATIONS, BUT PROBABILITIES
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH AREA ONLY AROUND 30%. NEVERTHELESS,
THESE CONDITIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK WEAK TREE BRANCHES
AND BLOW AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS AND DEBRIS.
STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGHEST KING TIDES
OF THE YEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE AND MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING. THIS TIDAL FLOODING MAY ALSO BE
EXACERBATED BY COASTAL SHOWERS AND RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT WATER RISES ALONG THE FAR EASTERN METRO AREAS. WHILE THE
PEAK TIDES WILL BE DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WE COME OUT OF
THIS FULL MOON PHASE.
DEEPER MOISTURE, WITH INCREASED PWATS OF AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES,
WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW LOCALIZED STRONGER STORMS AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE MAY CREATE SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING CONCERNS.
HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DOWNTREND
AFTER MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN FINALLY EJECTS
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. RIDGING FROM THE GULF AND DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE OVER FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DECREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE. BUT WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING, PESKY ONSHORE SHOWERS FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NUISANCE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ALONG WITH A NNE FLOW FOR ALL TAF
SITES. GUSTY WINDS RANGING AROUND 20 KTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL KEEP VCSH THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY AS SCT SHRA PUSHED ONSHORE. ON
SUNDAY, WINDS SHOULD PICK BACK UP, GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS FOR ALL
SITES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAXIMUM
GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO INCREASES IN THE FUTURE. GRADUAL
ONSHORE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE NE WINDS HAS LED TO A TENTATIVE
VCTS FOR ALL EASTERN SITES INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH CONDITIONS PROGRESSIVELY WORSENING OVER
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS ON
ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT STRONGER WINDS ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY ARE LEADING TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS. PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING 30 KT WINDS CLIMBS TO AROUND 40% ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD.
HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORM. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 6-9 FEET
IN THE GULF AND 10-14 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HIGH SEAS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BEFORE CONDITIONS FINALLY START TO
RELAX DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURF HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB TODAY BUT PEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF HEIGHTS OF
10 TO 12 FEET MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG ONSHORE WIND FLOW AND HIGH SEAS MAY COMBINE
WITH KING TIDES TO INCREASE THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR A DISCUSSION ON
THE UPCOMING KING TIDE CYCLE AS WELL. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT MOST OF THESE BEACH HAZARDS WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED COASTAL WATER LEVELS DUE TO KING
TIDES, PERSISTENT ONSHORE WIND FLOW, AND LOCALIZED POCKETS OF THE
AREA THAT CAN EASILY BECOME SATURATED DUE TO ANTECEDENT RAINFALLS
CREATES A CONCERN FOR FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. ADDING IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
WHICH COULD MATERIALIZE DUE TO THE KING TIDES ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST, IT COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR WATER TO DRAIN FROM SOME COASTAL
AREAS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE WINDOW
AROUND LOW TIDE COMES. HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE AS A DRIER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY STILL MAKES THE
TIMING A BIT PREMATURE, BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED IF THE
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 84 74 83 / 20 70 60 70
WEST KENDALL 70 85 74 84 / 10 50 40 60
OPA-LOCKA 69 85 73 84 / 30 60 60 70
HOMESTEAD 69 85 73 84 / 10 50 60 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 83 74 82 / 50 70 80 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 83 74 83 / 50 70 80 80
PEMBROKE PINES 68 85 72 84 / 40 60 70 70
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 74 82 / 60 80 80 70
BOCA RATON 70 83 73 82 / 50 80 80 80
NAPLES 67 86 70 86 / 0 20 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ168.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....NMP
AVIATION...AEG
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