675
FXUS62 KMFL 251131
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
731 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 715 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH EACH HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METROS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- STRONG WINDS, WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
- DANGEROUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS SET UP FOR TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK AS AN OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. CREATES A
PRIMARILY MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH STEADY NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ELONGATED NORTH-TO-
SOUTH TROUGH IS SET UP JUST EAST OF THIS RIDGE BLOCK OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ADDITIONALLY, THIS RESULTS IN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER-LEVEL SETUP BEING STOUT AS WELL, WITH
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST.
THIS PATTERN COULD LEAD TO US APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COASTLINE, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH CURRENTLY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY YET. REGARDLESS, SUSTAINED NE WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS
OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.
IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY, THE MAIN DRIVERS WILL BE
VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE NEARBY ELONGATED TROUGH AND
SPEED/FRICTION CONVERGENCE CREATED BY STRONG NE FLOW RUSHING INTO
LESS STRONG WINDS OVER LAND. THIS TYPE OF CONVERGENCE CAN LEAD TO
NUMEROUS POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT TYPICALLY NOT AS LONG
LASTING OR TALL AS IN A TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETUP.
NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS. WITH HOW
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG WITH THE BRISK FLOW
LEADING TO FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS, CONCERNS ARE LOW FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP CONVECTION
IS TYPICALLY HARD TO COME BY IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS. HOWEVER, AN
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OR TWO FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DUE TO TRAINING ACTIVITY, BUT THE RISK OVERALL ACROSS THE
REGION IS NOT HIGH.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY, MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ADVECTING OFFSHORE AND THUS
THERE WILL BE AN EVEN LESSER RISK FOR CONVECTIVE AND HYDRO HAZARDS
ON MONDAY. SOME LEVEL OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY,
BUT LESS THAN TODAY AND ONCE AGAIN ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FAST
MOVING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH PARTS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA REACHING THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHILE NOT MUCH OF A LEGEND DOWN HERE AS IT IS UP IN THE GREAT LAKES,
IT APPEARS THAT THE GALES OF NOVEMBER MAY INDEED COME EARLY FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA. BREEZY 25 TO 35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
COMMON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION, WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED FOR THE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PERIOD IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE. IT SEEMS
THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR
GREATER IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF BROWARD, DADE, AND PALM
BEACH COUNTIES. PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE ONLY
AT ABOUT 40%, SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF AROUND 20 MPH. PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEGIN TO RELAX NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL FINALLY LEAD TO SOME CALMING OF THE
WINDS. HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL KEEP THE SAME OVERALL PATTERN IN PLACE, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MOVING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND STEER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND
DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE WEATHER TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS UNSETTLED. AS THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXERT GREATER INFLUENCE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA,
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DECLINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE
BAHAMAS WILL HELP TRANSPORT SOME INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, WITH PWATS LOOKING TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA (IF THE SYSTEMS STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR
AREA). OVERALL, THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COMING OFF OF THE GULF STREAM WATERS
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AFTER TUESDAY. A MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE INDUCED
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY RETURN ONCE NORTHEAST WINDS WEAKEN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE AND MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THIS TIDAL FLOODING MAY ALSO
BE EXACERBATED BY COASTAL SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WATER RISES ALONG THE FAR EASTERN METRO
AREAS. WHILE THE PEAK TIDES WILL BE DURING THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS WE COME OUT OF THIS FULL MOON PHASE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS
TODAY EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A LAND BREEZE/NNW WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST
COAST TERMINALS WILL VEER TO A NNE DIRECTION BY AROUND 13-14Z AND
BECOME QUITE GUSTY WITH PEAK GUSTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD OSCILLATING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS ACROSS ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE UP TO 25-35 KTS BY TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THIS WEEK,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT GALE FORCE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HEAVY
RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL BE A THREAT WITH
ANY STORM. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 6-9 FEET IN
THE GULF AND 10-14 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH SEAS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BEFORE CONDITIONS FINALLY START TO
RELAX DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. DANGEROUS SURF HEIGHTS OF
10 TO 12 FEET MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
FURTHERMORE, STRONG ONSHORE WIND FLOW AND HIGH SEAS MAY
COMBINE WITH KING TIDES TO INCREASE THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. CURRENTLY, IT IS EXPECTED THAT MODERATE
FLOODING WILL OCCUR THROUGH TODAY, WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH MAJOR
FLOOD STAGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL BE ASSESSED
FURTHER, BUT FOR NOW A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MON-TUE TIME FRAME AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR
TIDAL FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 83 74 83 74 / 80 70 60 60
WEST KENDALL 84 73 84 74 / 70 60 60 50
OPA-LOCKA 84 74 84 74 / 90 80 60 60
HOMESTEAD 84 73 84 74 / 80 70 70 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 74 82 74 / 90 80 70 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 74 83 75 / 90 80 70 70
PEMBROKE PINES 84 73 84 74 / 90 80 60 60
WEST PALM BEACH 82 73 83 74 / 90 70 70 60
BOCA RATON 82 74 82 75 / 90 80 80 70
NAPLES 85 71 86 71 / 30 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ168.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650-
651-670-671.
GALE WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
AMZ650-651-670-671.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ650-651-670-671.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....NMP
AVIATION...AD
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