359
FXUS62 KMFL 252249
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
649 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 646 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH EACH HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS WEEK.
- HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METROS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- STRONG WINDS, WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
- DANGEROUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 525 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK, WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND FAST-MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUING TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS REMAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE AND
COASTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING ROUGH SEAS, LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE. A GALE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING TONIGHT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WHERE
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING DRIVEN BY STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS COMBINING WITH THE PEAK KING TIDES.
REMEMBER TO NEVER DRIVE, WALK, OR WADE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ARE
TRENDING LOWER HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK,
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT,
PARTICULARLY WHERE SHOWERS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST
TO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE LAKE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS SET UP FOR TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK AS AN OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. CREATES A
PRIMARILY MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH STEADY NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ELONGATED NORTH-TO-
SOUTH TROUGH IS SET UP JUST EAST OF THIS RIDGE BLOCK OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ADDITIONALLY, THIS RESULTS IN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER-LEVEL SETUP BEING STOUT AS WELL, WITH
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST.
THIS PATTERN COULD LEAD TO US APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COASTLINE, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH CURRENTLY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY YET. REGARDLESS, SUSTAINED NE WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS
OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.
IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY, THE MAIN DRIVERS WILL BE
VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE NEARBY ELONGATED TROUGH AND
SPEED/FRICTION CONVERGENCE CREATED BY STRONG NE FLOW RUSHING INTO
LESS STRONG WINDS OVER LAND. THIS TYPE OF CONVERGENCE CAN LEAD TO
NUMEROUS POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT TYPICALLY NOT AS LONG
LASTING OR TALL AS IN A TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETUP.
NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS. WITH HOW
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG WITH THE BRISK FLOW
LEADING TO FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS, CONCERNS ARE LOW FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP CONVECTION
IS TYPICALLY HARD TO COME BY IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS. HOWEVER, AN
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OR TWO FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DUE TO TRAINING ACTIVITY, BUT THE RISK OVERALL ACROSS THE
REGION IS NOT HIGH.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY, MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ADVECTING OFFSHORE AND THUS
THERE WILL BE AN EVEN LESSER RISK FOR CONVECTIVE AND HYDRO HAZARDS
ON MONDAY. SOME LEVEL OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY,
BUT LESS THAN TODAY AND ONCE AGAIN ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FAST
MOVING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH PARTS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA REACHING THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHILE NOT MUCH OF A LEGEND DOWN HERE AS IT IS UP IN THE GREAT LAKES,
IT APPEARS THAT THE GALES OF NOVEMBER MAY INDEED COME EARLY FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA. BREEZY 25 TO 35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
COMMON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION, WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED FOR THE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PERIOD IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE. IT SEEMS
THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR
GREATER IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF BROWARD, DADE, AND PALM
BEACH COUNTIES. PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE ONLY
AT ABOUT 40%, SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF AROUND 20 MPH. PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEGIN TO RELAX NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL FINALLY LEAD TO SOME CALMING OF THE
WINDS. HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL KEEP THE SAME OVERALL PATTERN IN PLACE, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MOVING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND STEER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND
DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE WEATHER TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS UNSETTLED. AS THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXERT GREATER INFLUENCE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA,
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DECLINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE
BAHAMAS WILL HELP TRANSPORT SOME INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, WITH PWATS LOOKING TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA (IF THE SYSTEMS STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR
AREA). OVERALL, THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COMING OFF OF THE GULF STREAM WATERS
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AFTER TUESDAY. A MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE INDUCED
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY RETURN ONCE NORTHEAST WINDS WEAKEN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE AND MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THIS TIDAL FLOODING MAY ALSO
BE EXACERBATED BY COASTAL SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WATER RISES ALONG THE FAR EASTERN METRO
AREAS. WHILE THE PEAK TIDES WILL BE DURING THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS WE COME OUT OF THIS FULL MOON PHASE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS COULD
RESULT IN VERY BRIEF VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 525 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE GULF AND 10 TO 14
FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM. HAZARDOUS SEAS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 525 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALONG ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. DANGEROUS SURF HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS, COMBINED WITH KING TIDES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON, WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE, WITH LOCALLY MAJOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 75 82 75 82 / 70 60 60 70
WEST KENDALL 74 84 75 84 / 70 50 50 60
OPA-LOCKA 74 82 75 83 / 70 60 50 70
HOMESTEAD 74 84 74 84 / 70 60 60 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 81 75 81 / 80 60 60 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 75 82 75 82 / 80 60 60 80
PEMBROKE PINES 74 83 74 83 / 70 60 50 70
WEST PALM BEACH 74 82 75 82 / 70 50 50 70
BOCA RATON 74 82 75 82 / 70 60 60 80
NAPLES 70 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ168.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
651-670-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ630-650-651-670-671.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....NMP
AVIATION...ATV
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