358
FXUS62 KMFL 260531
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
131 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
- MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH EACH HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS WEEK.
- HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METROS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- STRONG WINDS, WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
- DANGEROUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS SET UP FOR TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK AS AN OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. CREATES A
PRIMARILY MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH STEADY NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ELONGATED NORTH-TO-
SOUTH TROUGH IS SET UP JUST EAST OF THIS RIDGE BLOCK OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ADDITIONALLY, THIS RESULTS IN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER-LEVEL SETUP BEING STOUT AS WELL, WITH
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST.
THIS PATTERN COULD LEAD TO US APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COASTLINE, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH CURRENTLY TO RESULT IN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY YET. REGARDLESS, SUSTAINED NE WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS
OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.
IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY, THE MAIN DRIVERS WILL BE
VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE NEARBY ELONGATED TROUGH AND
SPEED/FRICTION CONVERGENCE CREATED BY STRONG NE FLOW RUSHING INTO
LESS STRONG WINDS OVER LAND. THIS TYPE OF CONVERGENCE CAN LEAD TO
NUMEROUS POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT TYPICALLY NOT AS LONG
LASTING OR TALL AS IN A TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETUP.
NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS. WITH HOW
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG WITH THE BRISK FLOW
LEADING TO FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS, CONCERNS ARE LOW FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP CONVECTION
IS TYPICALLY HARD TO COME BY IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS. HOWEVER, AN
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OR TWO FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DUE TO TRAINING ACTIVITY, BUT THE RISK OVERALL ACROSS THE
REGION IS NOT HIGH.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY, MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ADVECTING OFFSHORE AND THUS
THERE WILL BE AN EVEN LESSER RISK FOR CONVECTIVE AND HYDRO HAZARDS
ON MONDAY. SOME LEVEL OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY,
BUT LESS THAN TODAY AND ONCE AGAIN ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FAST
MOVING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH PARTS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA REACHING THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
A STATIONARY MID-LEVEL LOW TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE BLOCK
PATTERN NEAR THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EJECT FURTHER OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME, ALONG WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO REBUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., WHICH WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LESS BREEZY BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEREFORE, WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, THE WEATHER AS A WHOLE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS UNSETTLED THAN IT
CURRENTLY IS RIGHT NOW. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WOULD BE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT BACK TO A NE/ENE DIRECTION AND FAVOR INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPING
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, QPF
EACH DAY IS EXPECTED FOR LESS THAN ONE INCH, WHICH RESULTS IN NO
CONCERNS CURRENTLY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH-
END SCENARIOS AND CLUSTERS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS UP TO 2-4
INCHES OF RAIN IN A TWO DAY PERIOD, WHICH FURTHER DOES NOT SUPPORT
EVIDENCE FOR FLOODING RISK AT THIS CURRENT TIME.
AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION ABOVE, THE CONCERN TO MONITOR INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK IS THE ONGOING KING TIDE CYCLE CONTRIBUTING TO
EXACERBATION OF FLOODING WITH ANY RAINFALL OCCURRING. GIVEN THAT
SOME LEVEL OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY, THE
KING TIDE CYCLES CAN EXACERBATE FLOODING IN THE VULNERABLE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. WHILE THE PEAK TIDES WILL BE DURING THE BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING MAY PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS WE COME OUT OF THIS FULL MOON PHASE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH HIGHS RISING BACK TO THE MID 80S FOR
SE FLORIDA AND UPPER 80S FOR SW FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
GUSTY NE WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD REACH 20 KTS. QUICK-MOVING SHRA CAN
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BRIEF LOWER CIGS/VIS AS WELL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 525 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE GULF AND 10 TO 14
FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM. HAZARDOUS SEAS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 525 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALONG ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. DANGEROUS SURF HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS, COMBINED WITH KING TIDES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON, WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE, WITH LOCALLY MAJOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 75 82 76 / 60 60 70 70
WEST KENDALL 84 75 84 75 / 50 50 60 50
OPA-LOCKA 82 75 83 75 / 60 50 70 70
HOMESTEAD 84 74 84 75 / 60 60 70 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 75 81 75 / 60 60 80 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 75 82 76 / 60 60 80 70
PEMBROKE PINES 83 74 83 75 / 60 50 70 70
WEST PALM BEACH 82 75 82 75 / 50 50 70 70
BOCA RATON 82 75 82 75 / 60 60 80 70
NAPLES 85 70 85 72 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ168.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630-
650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...REDMAN
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