038
FXUS62 KMFL 261051
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
651 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 650 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
- MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INUNDATED ROADWAYS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR COASTAL AREAS.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED MINOR URBAN FLOODING.
- STRONG WINDS, WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- DANGEROUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
THE RECENT 00Z MFL SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAVE MOISTENED UP QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. LOW
LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS UP TO 90% AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT HAS CLIMBED UP TO 1.81 INCHES, WITHIN THE 75 THE
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT OF THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE, SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PEPPERING THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE ALL EVENING, AND THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL LOW CHURNING OVER NORTHERN
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS, PROVIDING WIDE SPREAD FORCING AND ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE
RECENT UPPER AIR SOUNDING ARE SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR
ABOVE 500 MB. AS A RESULT, THE DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
HAS KEPT MOST CONVECTION VERY WEAK AND LOW TOPPED. THE THREAT OF
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS. WHILE SEVERAL SHOWERS WILL TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS ALL
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP RAINFALL MOVING AT A PRETTY
QUICK PACE. THEREFORE, THERE IS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. PERHAPS A FEW
LOCALIZED AREAS NEAR THE COAST CAN SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH A BIT OF
HELP FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE GULF STREAM WATERS. A SIMILAR STORY
WILL PLAY OUT FOR TUESDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AROUND 75% FOR THE EASTERN METRO AREAS, WITH
ACTIVITY THEN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES WEST.
WHILE AN AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN, A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 28 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, YOU WILL
FEEL LIKE A DOG STICKING IT'S HEAD OUT THE WINDOW OF A MOVING CAR. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE METRO AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE,
BROWARD AND PALM BEACH, THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL TREE BRANCHES
MAY BE BROKEN AND LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS.
THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TIDAL GAUGES WILL REACH
MAJOR FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES ACROSS THE
COASTAL ATLANTIC. THIS TIDAL FLOODING MAY ALSO BE EXACERBATED BY
COASTAL SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT WATER RISES AND INUNDATION OF PROPERTY AND ROADWAYS
ALONG EASTERN METRO AREAS. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE NET COUPLE OF
DAYS. REMEMBER TO NEVER DRIVE, WALK, OR WADE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
A STATIONARY MID-LEVEL LOW TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE BLOCK
PATTERN NEAR THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EJECT FURTHER OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME, ALONG WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO REBUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., WHICH WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LESS BREEZY BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEREFORE, WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, THE WEATHER AS A WHOLE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS UNSETTLED THAN IT
CURRENTLY IS RIGHT NOW. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WOULD BE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT BACK TO A NE/ENE DIRECTION AND FAVOR INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPING
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, QPF
EACH DAY IS EXPECTED FOR LESS THAN ONE INCH, WHICH RESULTS IN NO
CONCERNS CURRENTLY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH-
END SCENARIOS AND CLUSTERS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS UP TO 2-4
INCHES OF RAIN IN A TWO DAY PERIOD, WHICH FURTHER DOES NOT SUPPORT
EVIDENCE FOR FLOODING RISK AT THIS CURRENT TIME.
AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION ABOVE, THE CONCERN TO MONITOR INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK IS THE ONGOING KING TIDE CYCLE CONTRIBUTING TO
EXACERBATION OF FLOODING WITH ANY RAINFALL OCCURRING. GIVEN THAT
SOME LEVEL OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY, THE
KING TIDE CYCLES CAN EXACERBATE FLOODING IN THE VULNERABLE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. WHILE THE PEAK TIDES WILL BE DURING THE BEGINNING TO
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING MAY PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS WE COME OUT OF THIS FULL MOON PHASE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH HIGHS RISING BACK TO THE MID 80S FOR
SE FLORIDA AND UPPER 80S FOR SW FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
BREEZY NE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS 15-20 KTS AND GUSTS
OF 25-35 KTS. SCATTERED QUICK MOVING SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK AS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WHERE A GALE WARNING IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE GULF AND
10 TO 14 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL,
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.
HAZARDOUS SEAS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALONG ALL
ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. DANGEROUS SURF HEIGHTS OF
10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AND DECREASING TO AROUND 8 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS, COMBINED WITH KING TIDES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON, WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 75 82 76 / 60 60 80 70
WEST KENDALL 84 74 84 75 / 50 50 70 60
OPA-LOCKA 82 74 82 75 / 60 60 80 70
HOMESTEAD 84 74 84 75 / 60 60 80 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 74 81 75 / 60 60 80 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 75 82 76 / 60 50 80 80
PEMBROKE PINES 83 73 83 74 / 60 60 80 80
WEST PALM BEACH 82 74 82 75 / 50 40 80 80
BOCA RATON 82 74 82 75 / 60 50 80 80
NAPLES 85 70 86 72 / 0 0 20 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ168.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630-
650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...CMF
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