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WTUS82 KMLB 082147
HLSMLB
FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-090600-
HURRICANE MILTON LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL AL142024
547 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2024
THIS PRODUCT COVERS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
**LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY NORTH OF MILTON'S CENTER**
**HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION NOW**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR OKEECHOBEE
- THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR COASTAL SAINT LUCIE AND INLAND SAINT LUCIE
- THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A STORM SURGE
WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS
- A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL MARTIN AND INLAND
MARTIN
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL VOLUSIA, NORTHERN BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS, AND SOUTHERN
BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS
- A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL INDIAN RIVER,
COASTAL SAINT LUCIE, INLAND INDIAN RIVER, INLAND NORTHERN
BREVARD, INLAND SAINT LUCIE, INLAND SOUTHERN BREVARD, INLAND
VOLUSIA, MAINLAND NORTHERN BREVARD, MAINLAND SOUTHERN BREVARD,
NORTHERN LAKE, OKEECHOBEE, ORANGE, OSCEOLA, SEMINOLE, AND
SOUTHERN LAKE
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL MARTIN AND INLAND MARTIN
* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ORLANDO FL
- 22.7N 87.5W
- STORM INTENSITY 165 MPH
- MOVEMENT EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
AS OF 5 PM, MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MILTON HAS
PICKED UP FORWARD MOMENTUM AND IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 9 MPH, AND HAS STRENGTHENED AGAIN AND IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 165
MPH AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 918 MB.
MILTON WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MILTON IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CROSSING THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE,
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS AS MILTON MOVES OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR OKEECHOBEE AND ST LUCIE
COUNTIES, AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAS BEE ISSUED FOR MARTIN
COUNTY. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR MARTIN COUNTY.
ALL OTHER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER HURRICANE
WARNINGS. FINAL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE.
WIND: OUTER RAINBANDS FROM HURRICANE MILTON ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE
ALONG MILTON'S PATH, WITH A SWATH OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THESE WINDS WILL KNOCK DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES, LEADING TO POWER OUTAGES. ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD BE IN A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE
CONDITIONS BECOME HAZARDOUS.
HEAVY RAIN: AHEAD OF MILTON, DEEP MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR FLOODING ALONG THE COAST. RAINFALL DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE MILTON WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS RAINBANDS REACH EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL
DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND THE GREATER ORLANDO AREA.
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH 10 TO 15 INCHES FORECAST NEAR THE I-4
CORRIDOR. TO THE SOUTH, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ALONG WITH INSTANCES OF HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES, WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT,
POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CAUSE
RAPID RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT
ASTOR, WHICH IS APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, IS FORECAST TO
RISE QUICKLY TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
POINTS UPSTREAM ON THE SAINT JOHNS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
RISES TO MINOR AND MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.
TORNADOES: IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, A TORNADOES EMBEDDED
IN RAINBANDS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS
OF RECEIVING SEVERE WEATHER ALERTS.
BEACH AND COASTAL HAZARDS: ALONG THE COAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH AND DUNE EROSION FROM COASTAL STORM SURGE. THIS
THREAT EXISTS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF WHERE MILTON TRACKS.
AFTER MILTON MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, ELEVATING WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. STORM
SURGE IS FORECAST TO REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND IN
AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTLINES,
WITH DUNE EROSION LIKELY. A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
ALL BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS, AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA COUNTY. UP TO 3 FEET OF STORM SURGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST. HIGHER WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS IS THE LAST AFTERNOON TO ENSURE YOUR HURRICANE SUPPLY KIT IS
STOCKED AND YOUR SAFETY PLAN IS READY TO BE ACTIVATED. HEED THE
ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS WITH RECOMMENDED EVACUATION AND OR
SHELTERING ACTIONS FOR THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS, MOBILE HOMES,
OR ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE, FLORIDA.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
PREPARE FOR LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE IMPACTS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO
OKEECHOBEE AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA
INCLUDE:
- CONSIDERABLE ROOF DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, WITH SOME HAVING
WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR FAILURES LEADING TO STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. MOBILE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED, WITH SOME DESTROYED.
DAMAGE ACCENTUATED BY AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS MAY BE
UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS.
- MANY LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND
ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. SEVERAL BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND
ACCESS ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
- LARGE AREAS WITH POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
ALSO, PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
* FLOODING RAIN:
PREPARE FOR LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
DEVASTATING IMPACTS FROM NEAR KISSIMMEE TO TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD, AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE I-4 CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- EXTREME RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT NUMEROUS EVACUATIONS AND
RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY OVERWHELMINGLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS
IN MANY PLACES WITH DEEP MOVING WATER. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS,
CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME RAGING RIVERS. IN MOUNTAIN
AREAS, DEADLY RUNOFF MAY RAGE DOWN VALLEYS WHILE INCREASING
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO ROCKSLIDES AND MUDSLIDES. FLOOD CONTROL
SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER NUMEROUS STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR WASHED
AWAY. NUMEROUS PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER ESCAPE
ROUTES. STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF RAGING WATER
WITH UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
DANGEROUS. NUMEROUS ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME WEAKENED
OR WASHED OUT.
PREPARE FOR LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT TO EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA.
* TORNADOES:
PREPARE FOR A DANGEROUS TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW SPOTS
OF CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS TORN OFF FRAME HOUSES, MOBILE
HOMES DEMOLISHED, BOXCARS OVERTURNED, LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, VEHICLES TUMBLED, AND SMALL BOATS TOSSED ABOUT.
DANGEROUS PROJECTILES CAN ADD TO THE TOLL.
* SURGE:
PREPARE FOR LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTLINES. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- AREAS OF INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING ACCENTUATED BY
WAVES. DAMAGE TO SEVERAL BUILDINGS, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS BECOME
WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOW
SPOTS.
- MAJOR BEACH EROSION WITH HEAVY SURF BREACHING DUNES. STRONG AND
NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
- MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS.
SEVERAL SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS, ESPECIALLY IN
UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
WHEN MAKING SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS, DO NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE HAZARDS SUCH AS FLOODING RAIN, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, STORM SURGE, AND TORNADOES EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
THE STORM.
IF YOU LIVE IN A PLACE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING, SUCH AS
NEAR THE OCEAN OR A LARGE INLAND LAKE, IN A LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREA, IN A VALLEY, OR NEAR AN ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVER, PLAN TO MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER ON HIGHER GROUND.
ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ORDERS THAT
ARE ISSUED. DO NOT NEEDLESSLY JEOPARDIZE YOUR LIFE OR THE LIVES OF
OTHERS.
BE SURE TO LET FRIENDS AND FAMILY MEMBERS KNOW OF YOUR INTENTIONS FOR
WEATHERING THE STORM AND YOUR WHEREABOUTS. HAVE SOMEONE LOCATED AWAY
FROM THE THREATENED AREA SERVE AS YOUR POINT OF CONTACT. SHARE VITAL
CONTACT INFORMATION WITH OTHERS.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE FL AROUND 12 AM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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