842
WTUS82 KMLB 090326
HLSMLB
FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-091030-
HURRICANE MILTON LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL AL142024
1126 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2024
THIS PRODUCT COVERS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
**CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AS MILTON APPROACHES FLORIDA**
**HURRICANE FORCE WINDS, SIGNIFICANT TO DEVASTATING FLOODING NEAR AND
NORTH OF MILTON'S CENTER**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- NONE
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL VOLUSIA, NORTHERN BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS, AND SOUTHERN
BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS
- A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL INDIAN RIVER,
COASTAL SAINT LUCIE, INLAND INDIAN RIVER, INLAND NORTHERN
BREVARD, INLAND SAINT LUCIE, INLAND SOUTHERN BREVARD, INLAND
VOLUSIA, MAINLAND NORTHERN BREVARD, MAINLAND SOUTHERN BREVARD,
NORTHERN LAKE, OKEECHOBEE, ORANGE, OSCEOLA, SEMINOLE, AND
SOUTHERN LAKE
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL MARTIN AND INLAND MARTIN
* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ORLANDO FL
- 23.4N 86.5W
- STORM INTENSITY 160 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
AS OF 11 PM, MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MILTON HAS PICKED UP
FORWARD MOMENTUM AND IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH,
REMAINING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 915 MB.
MILTON WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MILTON IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CROSSING THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE, SIGNIFICANT
HAZARDS POSED BY MILTON AS IT MOVES OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
EXCEPT MARTIN COUNTY, WHERE A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ARE IN EFFECT. FINAL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WIND: OUTER RAINBANDS FROM HURRICANE MILTON ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ALONG
MILTON'S PATH, WITH A SWATH OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THESE WINDS WILL KNOCK DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES, LEADING TO POWER OUTAGES. ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD BE IN A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE
CONDITIONS BECOME HAZARDOUS.
HEAVY RAIN: AHEAD OF MILTON, DEEP MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR FLOODING ALONG THE COAST. RAINFALL DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE MILTON WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT, AS RAINBANDS REACH EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL
DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE
I-4 CORRIDOR AND THE GREATER ORLANDO AREA.
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA, WITH A SWATH OF 10 TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN. THESE AMOUNTS, ALONG WITH INSTANCES OF HIGHER RAINFALL RATES,
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT, POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING
FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CAUSE RAPID RISES ON AREA CREEKS
AND STREAMS. THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR, WHICH IS ALREADY
APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, IS FORECAST TO RISE QUICKLY TO MAJOR
FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL POINTS UPSTREAM ON THE
SAINT JOHNS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE RISES TO AT LEAST MINOR OR
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.
TORNADOES: IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN
RAINBANDS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING
SEVERE WEATHER ALERTS.
BEACH AND COASTAL HAZARDS: ALONG THE COAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT BEACH AND DUNE EROSION FROM COASTAL STORM SURGE. THIS
THREAT EXISTS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF WHERE MILTON TRACKS. AFTER
MILTON MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
ELEVATING WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. STORM SURGE IS
FORECAST TO REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND IN AREAS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTLINES, WITH DUNE EROSION
LIKELY. A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BREVARD BARRIER
ISLANDS AND COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY.
UP TO 3 FEET OF STORM SURGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
HIGHER WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES.
HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS WITH RECOMMENDED EVACUATION AND OR
SHELTERING ACTIONS FOR THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS, MOBILE HOMES,
OR ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE, FLORIDA.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
DEVASTATING IMPACTS FROM NEAR KISSIMMEE TO TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- EXTREME RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT NUMEROUS EVACUATIONS AND
RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY OVERWHELMINGLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS
IN MANY PLACES WITH DEEP MOVING WATER. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS,
CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME RAGING RIVERS. IN MOUNTAIN
AREAS, DEADLY RUNOFF MAY RAGE DOWN VALLEYS WHILE INCREASING
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO ROCKSLIDES AND MUDSLIDES. FLOOD CONTROL
SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER NUMEROUS STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR WASHED
AWAY. NUMEROUS PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER ESCAPE
ROUTES. STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF RAGING WATER
WITH UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
DANGEROUS. NUMEROUS ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME WEAKENED
OR WASHED OUT.
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT TO EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE IMPACTS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR, TO OKEECHOBEE AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- CONSIDERABLE ROOF DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, WITH SOME HAVING
WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR FAILURES LEADING TO STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. MOBILE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED, WITH SOME DESTROYED.
DAMAGE ACCENTUATED BY AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS MAY BE
UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS.
- MANY LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND
ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. SEVERAL BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND
ACCESS ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
- LARGE AREAS WITH POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
* TORNADOES:
PROTECT AGAINST A DANGEROUS TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW SPOTS
OF CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS TORN OFF FRAME HOUSES, MOBILE
HOMES DEMOLISHED, BOXCARS OVERTURNED, LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, VEHICLES TUMBLED, AND SMALL BOATS TOSSED ABOUT.
DANGEROUS PROJECTILES CAN ADD TO THE TOLL.
* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTLINES.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- AREAS OF INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING ACCENTUATED BY
WAVES. DAMAGE TO SEVERAL BUILDINGS, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS BECOME
WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOW
SPOTS.
- MAJOR BEACH EROSION WITH HEAVY SURF BREACHING DUNES. STRONG AND
NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
- MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS.
SEVERAL SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS, ESPECIALLY IN
UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
WHEN MAKING SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS, DO NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE HAZARDS SUCH AS FLOODING RAIN, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, STORM SURGE, AND TORNADOES EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
THE STORM.
IF YOU LIVE IN A PLACE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING, SUCH AS
NEAR THE OCEAN OR A LARGE INLAND LAKE, IN A LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREA, IN A VALLEY, OR NEAR AN ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVER, PLAN TO MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER ON HIGHER GROUND.
BE SURE TO LET FRIENDS AND FAMILY MEMBERS KNOW OF YOUR INTENTIONS FOR
WEATHERING THE STORM AND YOUR WHEREABOUTS. HAVE SOMEONE LOCATED AWAY
FROM THE THREATENED AREA SERVE AS YOUR POINT OF CONTACT. SHARE VITAL
CONTACT INFORMATION WITH OTHERS.
ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ORDERS THAT
ARE ISSUED. DO NOT NEEDLESSLY JEOPARDIZE YOUR LIFE OR THE LIVES OF
OTHERS.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE FL AROUND 6 AM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
KELLY/SCHAPER
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