842  
WTUS82 KMLB 090326  
HLSMLB  
FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-091030-  
 
HURRICANE MILTON LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 16  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL AL142024  
1126 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2024  
 
THIS PRODUCT COVERS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA  
 
**CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AS MILTON APPROACHES FLORIDA**  
 
**HURRICANE FORCE WINDS, SIGNIFICANT TO DEVASTATING FLOODING NEAR AND  
NORTH OF MILTON'S CENTER**  
 
NEW INFORMATION  
---------------  
 
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:  
- NONE  
 
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:  
- A STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR  
COASTAL VOLUSIA, NORTHERN BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS, AND SOUTHERN  
BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS  
- A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL INDIAN RIVER,  
COASTAL SAINT LUCIE, INLAND INDIAN RIVER, INLAND NORTHERN  
BREVARD, INLAND SAINT LUCIE, INLAND SOUTHERN BREVARD, INLAND  
VOLUSIA, MAINLAND NORTHERN BREVARD, MAINLAND SOUTHERN BREVARD,  
NORTHERN LAKE, OKEECHOBEE, ORANGE, OSCEOLA, SEMINOLE, AND  
SOUTHERN LAKE  
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR  
COASTAL MARTIN AND INLAND MARTIN  
 
* STORM INFORMATION:  
- ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ORLANDO FL  
- 23.4N 86.5W  
- STORM INTENSITY 160 MPH  
- MOVEMENT NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH  
 
SITUATION OVERVIEW  
------------------  
 
AS OF 11 PM, MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN  
GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MILTON HAS PICKED UP  
FORWARD MOMENTUM AND IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH,  
REMAINING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 915 MB.  
 
MILTON WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF  
MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MILTON IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL  
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CROSSING THE  
EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN  
MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE, SIGNIFICANT  
HAZARDS POSED BY MILTON AS IT MOVES OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,  
EXCEPT MARTIN COUNTY, WHERE A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM  
WARNING ARE IN EFFECT. FINAL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO  
COMPLETION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE  
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
WIND: OUTER RAINBANDS FROM HURRICANE MILTON ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON  
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL  
STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ALONG  
MILTON'S PATH, WITH A SWATH OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS  
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THESE WINDS WILL KNOCK DOWN  
TREES AND POWER LINES, LEADING TO POWER OUTAGES. ALL EAST CENTRAL  
FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD BE IN A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE  
CONDITIONS BECOME HAZARDOUS.  
 
HEAVY RAIN: AHEAD OF MILTON, DEEP MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL  
CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST  
RISK FOR FLOODING ALONG THE COAST. RAINFALL DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH  
HURRICANE MILTON WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE  
DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT, AS RAINBANDS REACH EAST CENTRAL  
FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL  
DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE  
I-4 CORRIDOR AND THE GREATER ORLANDO AREA.  
 
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL  
FLORIDA, WITH A SWATH OF 10 TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
I-4 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF  
RAIN. THESE AMOUNTS, ALONG WITH INSTANCES OF HIGHER RAINFALL RATES,  
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT, POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING  
FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CAUSE RAPID RISES ON AREA CREEKS  
AND STREAMS. THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR, WHICH IS ALREADY  
APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, IS FORECAST TO RISE QUICKLY TO MAJOR  
FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL POINTS UPSTREAM ON THE  
SAINT JOHNS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE RISES TO AT LEAST MINOR OR  
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.  
 
TORNADOES: IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN  
RAINBANDS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING  
SEVERE WEATHER ALERTS.  
 
BEACH AND COASTAL HAZARDS: ALONG THE COAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SIGNIFICANT BEACH AND DUNE EROSION FROM COASTAL STORM SURGE. THIS  
THREAT EXISTS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF WHERE MILTON TRACKS. AFTER  
MILTON MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED,  
ELEVATING WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. STORM SURGE IS  
FORECAST TO REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND IN AREAS ALONG  
THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTLINES, WITH DUNE EROSION  
LIKELY. A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BREVARD BARRIER  
ISLANDS AND COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY.  
 
UP TO 3 FEET OF STORM SURGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.  
HIGHER WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC  
BEACHES.  
 
HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS WITH RECOMMENDED EVACUATION AND OR  
SHELTERING ACTIONS FOR THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS, MOBILE HOMES,  
OR ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.  
 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE  
CENTER AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE, FLORIDA.  
 
POTENTIAL IMPACTS  
-----------------  
 
* FLOODING RAIN:  
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE  
DEVASTATING IMPACTS FROM NEAR KISSIMMEE TO TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD,  
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:  
- EXTREME RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT NUMEROUS EVACUATIONS AND  
RESCUES.  
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY OVERWHELMINGLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS  
IN MANY PLACES WITH DEEP MOVING WATER. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS,  
CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME RAGING RIVERS. IN MOUNTAIN  
AREAS, DEADLY RUNOFF MAY RAGE DOWN VALLEYS WHILE INCREASING  
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO ROCKSLIDES AND MUDSLIDES. FLOOD CONTROL  
SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.  
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER NUMEROUS STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE  
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR WASHED  
AWAY. NUMEROUS PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER ESCAPE  
ROUTES. STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF RAGING WATER  
WITH UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME VERY  
DANGEROUS. NUMEROUS ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME WEAKENED  
OR WASHED OUT.  
 
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE  
SIGNIFICANT TO EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF  
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.  
 
* WIND:  
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE IMPACTS  
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR, TO OKEECHOBEE AND SAINT LUCIE  
COUNTIES. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:  
- CONSIDERABLE ROOF DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, WITH SOME HAVING  
WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR FAILURES LEADING TO STRUCTURAL  
DAMAGE. MOBILE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED, WITH SOME DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE ACCENTUATED BY AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS MAY BE  
UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS.  
- MANY LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND  
ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.  
- SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN  
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. SEVERAL BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND  
ACCESS ROUTES IMPASSABLE.  
- LARGE AREAS WITH POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.  
 
ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT  
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.  
 
* TORNADOES:  
PROTECT AGAINST A DANGEROUS TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT  
IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:  
- THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION  
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.  
- SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW SPOTS  
OF CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES.  
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS TORN OFF FRAME HOUSES, MOBILE  
HOMES DEMOLISHED, BOXCARS OVERTURNED, LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR  
UPROOTED, VEHICLES TUMBLED, AND SMALL BOATS TOSSED ABOUT.  
DANGEROUS PROJECTILES CAN ADD TO THE TOLL.  
 
* SURGE:  
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT  
IMPACTS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTLINES.  
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:  
- AREAS OF INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING ACCENTUATED BY  
WAVES. DAMAGE TO SEVERAL BUILDINGS, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.  
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS BECOME  
WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOW  
SPOTS.  
- MAJOR BEACH EROSION WITH HEAVY SURF BREACHING DUNES. STRONG AND  
NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS.  
- MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS.  
SEVERAL SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS, ESPECIALLY IN  
UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS  
----------------------------------  
 
* EVACUATIONS:  
FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.  
 
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:  
 
WHEN MAKING SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS, DO NOT FOCUS ON THE  
EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE HAZARDS SUCH AS FLOODING RAIN, DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS, STORM SURGE, AND TORNADOES EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF  
THE STORM.  
 
IF YOU LIVE IN A PLACE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING, SUCH AS  
NEAR THE OCEAN OR A LARGE INLAND LAKE, IN A LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE  
AREA, IN A VALLEY, OR NEAR AN ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVER, PLAN TO MOVE TO  
SAFE SHELTER ON HIGHER GROUND.  
 
BE SURE TO LET FRIENDS AND FAMILY MEMBERS KNOW OF YOUR INTENTIONS FOR  
WEATHERING THE STORM AND YOUR WHEREABOUTS. HAVE SOMEONE LOCATED AWAY  
FROM THE THREATENED AREA SERVE AS YOUR POINT OF CONTACT. SHARE VITAL  
CONTACT INFORMATION WITH OTHERS.  
 
ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ORDERS THAT  
ARE ISSUED. DO NOT NEEDLESSLY JEOPARDIZE YOUR LIFE OR THE LIVES OF  
OTHERS.  
 
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:  
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV  
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG  
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG  
 
NEXT UPDATE  
-----------  
 
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE FL AROUND 6 AM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS  
WARRANT.  
 

 
 
KELLY/SCHAPER  
 
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