892
FXUS62 KMLB 152305
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
605 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
- DANGEROUS SURF AND POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE
ADVISED TO STAY OUT OF THE OCEAN DUE TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS.
- MINOR TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND, PEAKING WITH SATURDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT,
AND THEN DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST BEHIND
THE FRONT TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
CURRENT-TONIGHT... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE TREASURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO TONIGHT. THE KMLB RADAR SHOWS A FEW
LIGHT RETURNS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
OTHERWISE MOSTLY QUIET ON RADAR. THE TEMPERATURES AS 3PM ARE IN THE
LOW 70S WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 MPH ACROSS
THE INTERIOR, AND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MP ALONG THE COAST.
THE RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR TO NORTH OF A LINE FROM KISSIMMEE TO
MELBOURNE, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING IN LOW 80S SOUTH OF THAT
LINE BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH (WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT).
NOTICEABLY COOLER TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND INTO THE 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N/NE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY VEER ONSHORE, ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, AND THEN WILL RISE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY TO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, AND IN THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL
ALSO REBOUND INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT SOME
LINGERING MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
NW OF I-4 INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HIGH
TIDES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AS HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE, AROUND 7 TO 8 AM DUE TO THE ADDITION OF BUILDING SEAS AND
ELEVATED N/NE FLOW. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR
TROPICAL STORM SARA HAS THIS SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST
OF BELIZE AND DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE
WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS FLORIDA GRADUALLY
GETTING PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO TUESDAY, WITH REMNANT
VORTICITY/MOISTURE OF SARA LIFTING N/NE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANY TROPICAL REDEVELOPMENT WITH SARA'S REMNANTS OVER THE GULF,
WHICH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT. HOWEVER, AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD FLORIDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO MID-WEEK. DRY AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY, AND THEN RAIN
CHANCES RISE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING SHIFTING ANY DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA, AND
LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
CURRENT-SUNDAY... (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC
WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8
FEET OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ACROSS ALL THE OFFSHORE WATERS. NEARSHORE, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF BREVARD COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST THIS EVENING, AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
10-15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THEY VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UP TO 7 TO 9 FEET
INTO EARLY WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY VEER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO SUNDAY, BUT LINGERING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY... (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) MORE FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS AROUND 5-10
KNOTS OUT OF THE E/SE ON MONDAY AND S/SE ON TUESDAY. SEAS FALL TO
3-4 FEET ON MONDAY AND 2-3 FEET ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
WITH A FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA, LIGHT N TO NNE BREEZES
OVERNIGHT (< 10 KT). VFR SHOULD PREVAIL, THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS SLOWLY VEER
NE ON SATURDAY, UP TO 12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 16 KT ALONG THE
COAST. SCT TO BKN BASES 4-5 KFT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 61 77 62 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 60 78 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 63 78 65 79 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 65 80 66 80 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 55 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 58 78 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 60 78 62 79 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 64 79 66 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...HEIL
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