225
FXUS62 KMLB 160555
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1255 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 817 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
- DANGEROUS SURF AND POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO THIS WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO STAY
OUT OF THE OCEAN DUE TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
- MINOR TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES INTO THIS WEEKEND, PEAKING
WITH SATURDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE.
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
(OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A COLD FRONT HAS NOW SETTLED WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA, EVIDENCED BY COOL/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE PENINSULA
THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S FOR ALL EXCEPT
THE FAR SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS SKIRTING THE
COASTLINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
INLAND. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR, WITH LOW/MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY-THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SATURDAY-MONDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) DRY CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N/NE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY VEER ONSHORE, ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY, IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND THEN WILL RISE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY TO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, AND IN THE LOW 80S ON
MONDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO REBOUND INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, BUT SOME LINGERING MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE NW OF I-4 INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HIGH
TIDES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AS HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE, AROUND 7 TO 8 AM DUE TO THE ADDITION OF BUILDING SEAS AND
ELEVATED N/NE FLOW. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR
TROPICAL STORM SARA HAS THIS SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST
OF BELIZE AND DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE
WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS FLORIDA GRADUALLY
GETTING PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO TUESDAY, WITH REMNANT
VORTICITY/MOISTURE OF SARA LIFTING N/NE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANY TROPICAL REDEVELOPMENT WITH SARA'S REMNANTS OVER THE GULF,
WHICH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT. HOWEVER, AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD FLORIDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO MID-WEEK. DRY AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY, AND THEN RAIN
CHANCES RISE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING SHIFTING ANY DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA, AND
LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 817 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
CURRENT-SUNDAY... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW INCLUDES ALL BUT
THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. SEAS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED
TO 5-7 FT THIS EVENING, AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT (EXCEPT UP TO 9 FT OVER THE GULF STREAM). NE WINDS 15-20 KT
TONIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KT ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS THEY VEER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY, BUT
LINGERING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY... (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) MORE FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS AROUND 5-10
KNOTS OUT OF THE E/SE ON MONDAY AND S/SE ON TUESDAY. SEAS FALL TO
3-4 FEET ON MONDAY AND 2-3 FEET ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO SAT PM AT 8-10KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 16KTS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MVFR CIGS AT TIMES (MAINLY INTO SAT PM AT KMLB AND THE TAF
SITES TO THE SOUTH).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 61 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 79 62 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 79 66 79 63 / 10 10 0 0
VRB 79 66 80 63 / 10 10 0 0
LEE 79 58 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 79 60 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 79 62 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 79 66 79 63 / 0 10 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ555-570-572-
575.
UPDATE...HEIL
AVIATION...FEHLING
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