552
FXUS62 KMLB 161145
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
645 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
- DANGEROUS SURF AND POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED
TO STAY OUT OF THE OCEAN DUE TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
ROUGH SURF.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES TODAY AND SUNDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH RAIN CHANCES RISING INTO MID-WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
TODAY-SUNDAY...AFTER A COOLER START THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WINDS VEER ONSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TODAY, AND THEN WILL
BE OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH
EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY, IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S, AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S,
EXCEPT NORTHWEST OF I-4 AND POSSIBLY OVER OTHER NORMALLY COOLER
SPOTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FALL
TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. DRY AIRMASS, WITH PW VALUES LESS THAN AN
INCH, AND RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE
WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE, FROM AROUND 7 TO 8 AM, AS HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINE WITH BUILDING SEAS AND ELEVATED N/NE
FLOW. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL THEN AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH SUNDAY
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AROUND 8 TO 9 AM AS HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES CONTINUE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...TC SARA IS STILL FORECAST BY NHC TO DISSIPATE WITH
ITS LAND INTERACTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME REMNANT
VORTICITY AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIFT N/NE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL FL THROUGH DAYTIME TUESDAY. WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER FROM THE E/SE ON MONDAY TO S/SE ON TUESDAY CONTINUING A SLOW
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY AND
THEN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 60S ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE (PW VALUES 2+ INCHES) BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER COLD FRONT. A MID LEVEL S/W ALOFT WILL
ALSO CROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS INTO THE DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING TO AROUND 50 PERCENT. THERE IS
VARYING INSTABILITY SHOWN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF, BUT THERE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT, SOME WHICH COULD
BECOME STRONG, ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW
VALUES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, ENDING RAIN CHANCES, AND USHERING IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON TO END THE WEEK. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S INITIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT
WILL BE EVEN COLDER IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ON
WEDNESDAY, MAX TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
TODAY-SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15
KNOTS TODAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SEAS UP TO 7 TO 9 FEET TODAY WILL
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. HAVE INCLUDED THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, WHICH NOW COVERS THE ENTIRE COASTAL
WATERS AS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ENDING FOR THE NEARSHORE
VOLUSIA WATERS AT 10 PM AND THEN FOR THE NEARSHORE BREVARD WATERS
AT 4 AM SUNDAY. THE REMAINING SCA OVER THE GULF STREAM SHOULD THEN
BE ABLE TO END AROUND 7 AM SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT WILL
STILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR LINGERING SEAS UP TO 6 FEET INTO THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE E/SE ON MONDAY AND S/SE ON TUESDAY, WITH SPEEDS 5-10
KNOTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FEET ON MONDAY AND 2-3 FEET ON
TUESDAY. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE INTO WEDNESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THEN RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 8-10KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 16KTS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
00Z. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR CIGS AT TIMES (MAINLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KMLB AND THE TAF SITES TO THE SOUTH).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 61 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 79 62 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 79 66 79 63 / 10 10 0 0
VRB 79 66 80 63 / 10 10 0 0
LEE 79 58 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 79 60 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 79 62 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 79 66 79 63 / 0 10 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ555-570-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...FEHLING
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