254
FXUS62 KMLB 170246
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
946 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
- DANGEROUS SURF AND POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED
TO STAY OUT OF THE OCEAN DUE TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
ROUGH SURF.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES TODAY AND SUNDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH RAIN CHANCES RISING INTO MID-WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A QUIET AND COOL EVENING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. ONSHORE WINDS WILL EASE AS THE CENTER CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US SHIFTS SOUTH TOWARDS FLORIDA,
LOOSENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ACROSS THE INTERIOR, DRY
CONDITIONS, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL
HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE U50S-L60S. CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND FURTHER SOUTH, ONSHORE FLOW WITH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
WILL DO BATTLE WITH THE OFFSHORE/DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS IN THE M60S-70, BUT A FEW SPOTS COULD DIP
INTO THE L60S IF OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
CURRENT-TONIGHT.... IT IS A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH THE KMLB RADAR IN CLEAR AIR MODE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON, PRODUCING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD, PRODUCING
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH PW VALUES LESS THAN ONE INCH.
THIS WILL HELP LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH, TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AROUND
TODAY'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY.... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, PRODUCING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LIGHT
WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME EAST-NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING,
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH FORECAST PW VALUES LESS THAN ONE INCH, WHICH WILL
ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON A SLIGHT WARMING TREND COMPARED TO TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, EXPECT UPPER
50S IN THE TRADITIONALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SUNDAY
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE, WHICH IS AROUND 8 TO 9 AM, AS HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) TC SARA IS STILL
FORECAST BY NHC TO DISSIPATE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME
REMNANT VORTICITY AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIFT N/NE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST,
BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL FL THROUGH DAYTIME TUESDAY. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER FROM THE E/SE ON MONDAY TO S/SE ON TUESDAY
CONTINUING A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
ON MONDAY AND THEN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) DEEPER MOISTURE (PW VALUES
2+ INCHES) BEGINS TO MOVE INTO FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER COLD FRONT. A MID
LEVEL S/W ALOFT WILL ALSO CROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS INTO
THE DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING TO AROUND 50 PERCENT.
THERE IS VARYING INSTABILITY SHOWN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF, BUT
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT, SOME
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG, ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WITH
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, ENDING RAIN CHANCES, AND USHERING IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON TO END THE WEEK. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S INITIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT
WILL BE EVEN COLDER IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ON
WEDNESDAY, MAX TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
CURRENT-SUNDAY... (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST EASE TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEAS UP TO 8
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM AND 5-7 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS EXPIRING AT 10 PM
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY THE NEARSHORE BREVARD WATERS AT 4 AM SUNDAY.
THE REMAINING SCA OVER THE GULF STREAM SHOULD THEN BE ABLE TO END
AROUND 7 AM SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR LINGERING SEAS UP TO 6 FEET INTO THE DAYTIME
ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE
MORE FAVORABLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE E/SE ON MONDAY AND S/SE ON TUESDAY,
WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FEET ON MONDAY AND 2-3
FEET ON TUESDAY. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THEN
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CONUS SHIFTS TOWARDS FL.
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS COOL DRAINAGE FLOW
SETS UP, BACKING WINDS TO NORTHERLY INLAND AND AT KDAB, WHILE
KTIX-KSUA BECOME MORE VARIABLE BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE FLOW.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS RESUME AFTER 15Z SUNDAY. SCT-BKN 040-050
MARINE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ONSHORE, MAINLY
FROM KTIX SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 61 78 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 62 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 66 79 63 79 / 10 0 0 0
VRB 67 80 64 80 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 58 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 60 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 62 81 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 66 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ555-570-572-
575.
UPDATE...HALEY
AVIATION...HALEY
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