578
FXUS62 KMLB 170840
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
- DANGEROUS SURF AND POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TODAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO STAY OUT
OF THE OCEAN DUE TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
- REMAINING DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK AND THEN TURNING MUCH COOLER INTO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
TODAY-TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AND THEN
SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF
THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY, AND THEN VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL STILL BE AROUND
SEASONABLE VALUES TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES, AND
THEN WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL IN UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S ON MONDAY AND LOW 80S ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HOWEVER, NORMALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR, INCLUDING NORTHWEST OF I-4
AND SOUTH OF THE ORLANDO METRO AREA MAY STILL SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION, AND A DRY
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES BELOW AN INCH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A SHALLOW LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN ONSHORE
MOVING MARINE STRATOCU CLOUD DECK NEAR TO SOUTH OF THE CAPE TODAY
MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES THAT REACH THE COAST AND
SHIFT INLAND. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, AND THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MORNING'S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE, FROM AROUND 8 TO 9 AM, AS HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
CONTINUE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING SWELLS WILL ALSO CONTINUE A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. ENTERING THE SURF
IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOME REMNANT ENERGY/MOISTURE FROM
DISSIPATED TC SARA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
MID WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT,
AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO OVERALL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY, WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOWER QPF/CAPE COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. LEANED CLOSER TO NBM/ECMWF AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO 60
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AND THEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S DURING THE DAY. AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA INTO LATE WEEK BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT, AND WILL
BE REINFORCED THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND AS W/NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S EACH NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT...LINGERING SWELLS UP TO 7-8 FEET ARE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE THEN WHAT THE GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING, SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH
10 AM THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS, NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION FOR LINGERING SEAS
UP TO 6 FEET. AFTER THE SCA EXPIRES, POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS AS SEAS UP TO 6 FEET WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. INTO TONIGHT,
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-5 FEET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TODAY, VEERING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION GRADUALLY
SHIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 5-10
KNOTS OUT OF THE E/SE ON MONDAY AND S/SE ON TUESDAY, WITH SEAS
FALLING TO 2-4 FEET TOMORROW AND 2-3 FEET TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH CENTRAL FLORIDA MID WEEK, WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE UP TO 15-20 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILD TO 3-4 FEET DURING THE DAY. POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THEN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AROUND
15-25 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BUILD FURTHER, UP TO 6-8 FEET MAINLY
OFFSHORE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT 040-050. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
SUN AFTERNOON AT 5-10KTS FROM THE NE BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER
23-02Z AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE (1023MB) BUILDS OVER THE E
CONUS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 60 79 62 / 0 10 0 0
MCO 79 61 80 62 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 79 63 79 64 / 10 10 0 0
VRB 80 64 80 64 / 10 10 0 0
LEE 80 58 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 80 59 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 79 61 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 80 64 80 64 / 10 10 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ141-
154-159-164-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ555-570-
572-575.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...FEHLING
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