632
FXUS62 KMLB 171720
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1220 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
- DANGEROUS SURF AND POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TODAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO STAY OUT
OF THE OCEAN DUE TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
- REMAINING DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK AND THEN TURNING MUCH COOLER INTO LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OBSERVED IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER EXISTS AT 850 MB, SUPPORTING ONSHORE MOVING
STRATOCU. OTHERWISE, THE 11Z XMR SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY AIR COLUMN
WITH A PWAT OF 0.72". TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY RANGING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.
A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF EXISTS
AT ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC BEACHES. ENTERING THE WATER IS
HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
TODAY-TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AND THEN
SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF
THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY, AND THEN VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL STILL BE AROUND
SEASONABLE VALUES TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES, AND
THEN WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL IN UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S ON MONDAY AND LOW 80S ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HOWEVER, NORMALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR, INCLUDING NORTHWEST OF I-4
AND SOUTH OF THE ORLANDO METRO AREA MAY STILL SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION, AND A DRY
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES BELOW AN INCH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A SHALLOW LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN ONSHORE
MOVING MARINE STRATOCU CLOUD DECK NEAR TO SOUTH OF THE CAPE TODAY
MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES THAT REACH THE COAST AND
SHIFT INLAND. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, AND THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MORNING'S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE, FROM AROUND 8 TO 9 AM, AS HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
CONTINUE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING SWELLS WILL ALSO CONTINUE A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. ENTERING THE SURF
IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOME REMNANT ENERGY/MOISTURE FROM
DISSIPATED TC SARA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
MID WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT,
AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO OVERALL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY, WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOWER QPF/CAPE COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. LEANED CLOSER TO NBM/ECMWF AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO 60
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AND THEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S DURING THE DAY. AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA INTO LATE WEEK BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT, AND WILL
BE REINFORCED THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND AS W/NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S EACH NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT. SEAS GRADUALLY IMPROVE
INTO THE EVENING BECOMING 4-5 FT BY SUNSET. WINDS ARE FORECAST OUT
OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 7-10 KTS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
MONDAY-THURSDAY (PREVIOUS)...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE E/SE ON MONDAY AND S/SE ON TUESDAY, WITH
SEAS FALLING TO 2-4 FEET TOMORROW AND 2-3 FEET TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENE WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT, PICKING
BACK UP OUT OF THE ESE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. DRY ACROSS THE
TERMINALS, WITH NO MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. SCT TO BKN
CLOUD COVERAGE AT FL035-050 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 59 79 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 60 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 62 79 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 63 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 57 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 58 80 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 60 82 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 63 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ141-
154-159-164-347-447-647-747.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...LAW
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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