279  
FXUS62 KMLB 172005  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
305 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024  
   
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024  
 
- REMAINING DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO  
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AND THEN TURNING  
MUCH COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT INTO LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024  
 
CURRENT-TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL  
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST  
EARLY THIS WEEK. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY VEER  
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY. A THIN  
BAND OF MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL ALLOW SCATTERED LOW LEVEL  
CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH CLOUD  
COVER THEN BUILDS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, AND SKIES BEGIN  
TO BECOME OVERCAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 ON MONDAY  
INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY WHILE MOSTLY REMAINING IN THE LOW  
80S.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...SOME REMNANT  
ENERGY/MOISTURE FROM DISSIPATED TC SARA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND  
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO MID WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY  
AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES  
CONTINUE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO OVERALL MOISTURE  
AND INSTABILITY, WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOWER QPF/CAPE COMPARED TO THE  
ECMWF. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN ON THE NBM, KEEPING THE GREATEST  
RAINFALL CHANCES AROUND 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
AND A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THIS  
ACTIVITY SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT  
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING  
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AND THEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND  
RAINFALL WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DURING THE  
DAY. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO  
THE 50S LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.  
 
THURSDAY-SATURDAY (PREVIOUS)...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR  
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA INTO LATE WEEK BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT,  
AND WILL BE REINFORCED THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND AS W/NW FLOW CONTINUES  
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO  
LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE  
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S EACH NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL  
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE  
FORECAST.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024  
 
TONIGHT-MONDAY...SEAS AROUND 4-5 FT TONIGHT CONTINUE TO IMPROVE  
MONDAY, SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT  
BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. DRY CONDITIONS  
CONTINUE.  
 
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IS PUSHED  
SEAWARD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. SOUTHERLY  
FLOW AROUND 5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY INCREASES TO 10-15 KTS TUESDAY  
NIGHT AS WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO  
INCREASE AND VEER BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 20-25 KTS THURSDAY.  
SEAS BETWEEN 2-4 FT BECOME POOR TO HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE THURSDAY  
INCREASING TO 5-7 FT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING  
STORMS RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENE WINDS 5 TO 10  
KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT, PICKING  
BACK UP OUT OF THE ESE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. DRY ACROSS THE  
TERMINALS, WITH NO MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. SCT TO BKN  
CLOUD COVERAGE AT FL035-050 THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 59 79 62 82 / 0 0 0 0  
MCO 60 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 0  
MLB 62 79 64 82 / 0 0 0 0  
VRB 63 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 0  
LEE 57 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0  
SFB 58 80 61 82 / 0 0 0 0  
ORL 60 82 63 84 / 0 0 0 0  
FPR 63 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...LAW  
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN  
 
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