002
FXUS62 KMLB 172330
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
630 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
- REMAINING DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AND THEN TURNING
MUCH COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT INTO LATE WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
CURRENT-TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY THIS WEEK. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY VEER
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY. A THIN
BAND OF MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL ALLOW SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH CLOUD
COVER THEN BUILDS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, AND SKIES BEGIN
TO BECOME OVERCAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 ON MONDAY
INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY WHILE MOSTLY REMAINING IN THE LOW
80S.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...SOME REMNANT
ENERGY/MOISTURE FROM DISSIPATED TC SARA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO MID WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO OVERALL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY, WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOWER QPF/CAPE COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN ON THE NBM, KEEPING THE GREATEST
RAINFALL CHANCES AROUND 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AND THEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DURING THE
DAY. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY (PREVIOUS)...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA INTO LATE WEEK BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT,
AND WILL BE REINFORCED THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND AS W/NW FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S EACH NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
TONIGHT-MONDAY...SEAS AROUND 4-5 FT TONIGHT CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
MONDAY, SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IS PUSHED
SEAWARD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND 5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY INCREASES TO 10-15 KTS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND VEER BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 20-25 KTS THURSDAY.
SEAS BETWEEN 2-4 FT BECOME POOR TO HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INCREASING TO 5-7 FT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR REMAINS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
OFF THE NE FL/SE GA COAST, KEEPING ONSHORE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIP THRU THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MARINE STRATOCU MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH DAYBREAK AT TREASURE COAST TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 59 79 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 60 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 62 79 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 63 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 57 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 58 80 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 60 82 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 63 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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