699
FXUS62 KMLB 180542
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1242 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
- REMAINING DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AND THEN TURNING
MUCH COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT INTO LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 815 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NIGHT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED WITH
SOME MARINE STRATOCU STREAMING ONTO THE COAST AND POINTS FURTHER
INLAND, ESP SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE U50S TO AROUND 60F ACROSS THE INTERIOR -
NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS MAY REALIZE M50S, WHILE CLOSER TOWARDS THE
COAST L60S WILL RULE WITH M-U60S FOR BARRIER ISLANDS. ALOFT, MID-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
CURRENT-TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY THIS WEEK. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY VEER
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY. A THIN
BAND OF MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL ALLOW SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH CLOUD
COVER THEN BUILDS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, AND SKIES BEGIN
TO BECOME OVERCAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 ON MONDAY
INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY WHILE MOSTLY REMAINING IN THE LOW
80S.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...SOME REMNANT
ENERGY/MOISTURE FROM DISSIPATED TC SARA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO MID WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO OVERALL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY, WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOWER QPF/CAPE COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN ON THE NBM, KEEPING THE GREATEST
RAINFALL CHANCES AROUND 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AND THEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DURING THE
DAY. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY (PREVIOUS)...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA INTO LATE WEEK BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT,
AND WILL BE REINFORCED THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND AS W/NW FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S EACH NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
TONIGHT-MONDAY...SEAS AROUND 4-5 FT TONIGHT CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
MONDAY, SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IS PUSHED
SEAWARD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND 5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY INCREASES TO 10-15 KTS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND VEER BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 20-25 KTS THURSDAY.
SEAS BETWEEN 2-4 FT BECOME POOR TO HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INCREASING TO 5-7 FT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THRU 14Z, GENERALLY ESE OR
VARIABLE AT TIMES. ONSHORE ESE WIND INCREASES AFTER 14Z-16Z TO 10
KT OR LESS, GRADUALLY VEERING MORE SE BY THE END OF THE TAF.
BKN CIGS AROUND 4-5KFT BECOME SCT/FEW THRU THE DAY AS HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW EARLY TUE. MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 61 82 67 / 0 0 0 30
MCO 79 62 82 67 / 0 0 0 30
MLB 79 64 82 68 / 0 0 0 20
VRB 80 64 82 67 / 0 0 0 10
LEE 82 61 83 67 / 0 0 0 40
SFB 81 61 82 67 / 0 0 0 30
ORL 82 62 84 68 / 0 0 0 30
FPR 80 64 82 67 / 0 0 0 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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