431
FXUS62 KMLB 181409
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
- DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR EXPECTED LATE WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING WHILE A THIN BAND OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS. OTHERWISE, THE 11Z XMR SOUNDING INDICATES A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN (0.66" PWAT), AND PRECIP IS NOT
FORECAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WEATHER OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
(1019MB) OVER THE SE US CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE
SW OF BERMUDA WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 0.7-0.8" RANGE. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S NORTH OF I-4 WITH THE LOW
60S TO LOW 70S TO THE SOUTH AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE US AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS AT 5-10MPH AND GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 WITH THE LOW TO UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTH
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY... A SIMILAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BUT
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS VEER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED WITH A BLEND OF THE NBM 75TH
PERCENTILE, CONSMOS, AND ECMWF MOS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BEFORE A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND LOW
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OVER THE THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERACTS WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE SE US. THEREFORE, THE MENTION OF
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN LEFT OUT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
(POPS 50-70%) FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS UP TO 0.40-1," IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25MPH.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL VEER NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE FORECAST
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SOUTH WINDS AT 5-10MPH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH MUCH COOLER AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING (LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S). HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25MPH.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... DRY AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE (1020MB) BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S SUNDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S ARE FORECAST EACH MORNING. MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ARE FORECAST NORTH OF MARTIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTIES WEST OF I-95. MINIMUM WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO THE
EAST OF I-95, IN ADDITION TO OVER MARTIN AND SOUTHEASTERN ST.
LUCIE COUNTIES EACH MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST WITH LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10KTS. SEAS ARE
FORECAST UP TO 2-3FT OVER THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COUNTY WATERS WITH UP TO 4-5FT OVER THE GULF STREAM AND THE
NEARSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY... DRY WEATHER AND FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 6-12KTS TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO VEER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AT 15-20KTS NORTH-
NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AT 15-25KTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO 2-3FT TUESDAY, 3-4FT WEDNESDAY, AND INCREASE TO 4-6FT
NEARSHORE WITH UP TO 6-9FT OFFSHORE (20-60NM) THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (POPS ~ 50-60%) WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR THRU THE TAF WITH SCT/BKN 4-5KFT CIGS TO PERSIST FROM AT
LEAST MCO/TIX SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING, EXPANDING AREAWIDE TODAY.
ESE WIND INCREASES AFTER 14Z-16Z TO 10 KT OR LESS, GRADUALLY
VEERING MORE S/SE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NW TUE. MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 60 83 69 / 0 10 10 50
MCO 79 61 85 69 / 0 0 0 40
MLB 79 64 84 70 / 0 10 10 20
VRB 80 64 84 71 / 0 0 10 20
LEE 82 61 84 70 / 0 0 0 60
SFB 81 60 85 69 / 0 0 0 40
ORL 82 61 85 70 / 0 0 0 40
FPR 80 63 84 69 / 0 0 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...LAW
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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