806
FXUS62 KMLB 190542
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1242 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
- RAIN CHANCES BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
- MUCH COOLER AIR EXPECTED LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 852 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT-TUESDAY...THICK BLANKET OF STRATOCU ACROSS ECFL
THIS EVENING, WHICH THE MODELS AREN'T PICKING UP ON. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY OTHERWISE WITH WINDS LIGHT TO CALM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF OF THE FL EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH/EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE BY 00Z WED (TUE
EVENING). PWATS NEAR 0.80 INCHES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH BY THIS
TIME, THOUGH CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST TO BE DRY WITH WINDS
BECOMING S/SE, GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UP TO
10-15 MPH ALONG THE COAST TUE AFTERNOON. THICKEST CLOUD COVER
SHOULD EXIST ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES ON TUE. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE L-M60S, PERHAPS U50S FOR NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. WARM DAY ON TUE WITH AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE L-M80S.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY GET SQUASHED
SOUTHWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT VEER SOUTH INTO TUESDAY
REMAINING LESS THAN 10 MPH. LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD GENERALLY
PERSIST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGH CLOUD COVER BUILDS INTO
LATE TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY MORNING WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
AND LOW INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OVER THE THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERACTS WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE SE US. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
(POPS 50-60%) ARE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 0.40-
1", IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25MPH. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL VEER NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO
THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM INTO UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON
WEDNESDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SOUTH WINDS AT 5-10MPH.
MUCH COOLER AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING AS
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS (LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S). AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY, RANGING THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...DRY AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE (1020MB) BUILDS OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S SUNDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S ARE FORECAST EACH MORNING. MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S ARE FORECAST NORTH OF MARTIN AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE
COUNTIES WEST OF I-95. MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO THE EAST OF I-95, IN ADDITION TO
OVER MARTIN AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTIES EACH MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KTS OR
LESS. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO VEER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15-20 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
VEER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20-25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS REBUILDING THURSDAY
AND INTO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
LOW-MID LEVEL CIG AROUND FL050 PERSISTS AT THE TERMINALS AS WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SE. SIMILAR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
THRU THE TAF, PERHAPS ERODING A BIT FROM OVC/BKN TO SCT AT TIMES.
WINDS INCREASE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 15Z, VEERING MORE
S/SSE. VCSH ARRIVES FROM NW TO SE, FIRST AT LEE AND SPREADING TO
MCO/ISM/TIX JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS ALSO LIKELY
BECOME MVFR/IFR BEYOND 06Z WED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 83 67 78 54 / 0 20 60 0
MCO 84 67 76 57 / 0 20 60 0
MLB 84 67 78 60 / 0 10 60 10
VRB 84 67 80 61 / 0 10 60 20
LEE 84 67 78 53 / 0 30 60 0
SFB 84 67 78 54 / 0 20 60 0
ORL 84 68 79 57 / 0 20 60 0
FPR 84 67 79 61 / 0 10 60 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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