000
FXUS62 KMLB 191008
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
503 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (2-6+ DEGREES) FORECAST TODAY
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
- COOLER AND DRY AIR IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND SENSITIVE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
(~1016MB) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 0.7-0.8" RANGE OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF I-95 WITH THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
TO THE EAST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. GOES-16
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND SOUTHERN BREVARD
COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS (POPS ~ 20%) ARE FORECAST
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND THE TREASURE COAST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT 6-12MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES. ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES (~ 2-6+) ARE FORECAST TODAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TODAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE FORECAST WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... WEAK LOW PRESSURE (~ 1008MB) IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) INTO
WEDNESDAY FROM LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
TREASURE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON (MAINLY AFTER
7AM). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POPS ~ 60-70%) AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A
LIMITED POTENTIAL OF LIGHTNING STORMS TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
(TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 0.4-1"), OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
LIGHTNING (S OF I-4), AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40MPH. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25MPH WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTH-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE
FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS ON THURSDAY
(UPPER 60S TO MID 70S). MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY-MONDAY... DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO SATURDAY, THE
SOUTHEAST US SUNDAY, AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
STATE OF FLORIDA, IN ADDITION TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY.
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO THE
WEEKEND FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND THE EAST-NORTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
FRIDAY/SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WITH THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S FORECAST SUNDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SOUTH-SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KTS ARE FORECAST TO VEER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
INTO OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
2-3FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS(POPS ~ 20%) ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AT 15-20KTS AND NORTH-NORTHWEST THURSDAY/
FRIDAY AT 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-34KTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO 3-5FT WEDNESDAY, AND INCREASE TO 4-6FT NEARSHORE WITH UP
TO 6-9FT OFFSHORE (20-60NM) THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE
SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) INTO
WEDNESDAY (POPS ~ 60-70%) WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40MPH, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
LOW-MID LEVEL CIG AROUND FL050 PERSISTS AT THE TERMINALS AS WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SE. SIMILAR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
THRU THE TAF, PERHAPS ERODING A BIT FROM OVC/BKN TO SCT AT TIMES.
WINDS INCREASE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 15Z, VEERING MORE
S/SSE. VCSH ARRIVES FROM NW TO SE, FIRST AT LEE AND SPREADING TO
MCO/ISM/TIX JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS ALSO LIKELY
BECOME MVFR/IFR BEYOND 06Z WED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
COOL AND DRY AIR IS EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE TREASURE
COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WITH THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S TO THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ARE
FORECAST OVER ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 83 68 79 52 / 0 60 70 10
MCO 84 69 78 56 / 0 50 70 10
MLB 83 70 80 59 / 10 20 70 20
VRB 84 70 81 59 / 20 10 70 20
LEE 84 68 79 52 / 0 60 70 10
SFB 84 69 79 53 / 0 50 70 10
ORL 84 69 80 55 / 0 50 70 10
FPR 84 70 81 60 / 20 10 70 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...SCHAPER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page