855
FXUS62 KMLB 191746
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1246 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 915 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (2-6+ DEGREES) FORECAST TODAY
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
- COOLER AND DRY AIR IS FORECAST LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE FORECAST FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS ON TRACK. AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, KEEPING
CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST (POPS LESS THAN 20%) AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
PERSIST AND ADVECT SOME MOISTURE TOWARDS THE AREA. A LAYER OF MARINE
STRATOCU WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE BUILDING ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT... MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS
(POPS ~ 20%) ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND THE TREASURE
COAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 6-12MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20MPH
AT TIMES. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES (~ 2-6+) ARE
FORECAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
FORECAST TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... WEAK LOW PRESSURE (~ 1008MB) IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) INTO
WEDNESDAY FROM LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
TREASURE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON (MAINLY AFTER
7AM). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POPS ~ 60-70%) AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A
LIMITED POTENTIAL OF LIGHTNING STORMS TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
(TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 0.4-1"), OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
LIGHTNING (S OF I-4), AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40MPH. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25MPH WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTH-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE
FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS ON THURSDAY
(UPPER 60S TO MID 70S). MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY-MONDAY... DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO SATURDAY, THE
SOUTHEAST US SUNDAY, AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
STATE OF FLORIDA, IN ADDITION TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY.
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO THE
WEEKEND FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND THE EAST-NORTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
FRIDAY/SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WITH THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S FORECAST SUNDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SOUTH-SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KTS ARE FORECAST TO VEER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
INTO OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
2-3FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS(POPS ~ 20%) ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AT 15-20KTS AND NORTH-NORTHWEST THURSDAY/
FRIDAY AT 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-34KTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO 3-5FT WEDNESDAY, AND INCREASE TO 4-6FT NEARSHORE WITH UP
TO 6-9FT OFFSHORE (20-60NM) THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE
SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) INTO
WEDNESDAY (POPS ~ 60-70%) WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40MPH, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
PREVAILING VFR TODAY WITH BKN/OVC DECK OF STRATOCU AT FL045-050
MAINLY IMPACTING COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. S/SE WINDS
INCREASING ABOVE 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRANSITION THIS PATTERN AFTER 00Z,
WITH EARLIEST ARRIVAL OF IMPACTS TO KLEE/KDAB AROUND 04Z. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIG/VIS WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY,
PUSHING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO MOST
SITES BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY. THE COLD FRONT PASSES NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF WINDOW, WITH N/NW WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
ARRIVING LATE TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 78 53 67 / 60 60 0 0
MCO 68 78 56 67 / 50 60 0 0
MLB 69 79 59 70 / 40 60 10 0
VRB 69 80 60 71 / 30 60 10 0
LEE 68 78 53 67 / 60 60 0 0
SFB 68 78 54 67 / 50 60 0 0
ORL 68 79 56 68 / 50 60 0 0
FPR 69 81 61 72 / 20 60 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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