902
FXUS62 KMLB 200550
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1250 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 811 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED DRY THRU THE EVENING, WITH PRE-FRONTAL
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT - ESP ACROSS THE I-4
CORRIDOR. MODELS SHOW WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVING INTO LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES WITH A GRADUAL TREND OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP SOUTHWARD FROM
HERE TOWARDS SUNRISE. SUSPECT MOST AREAS, ESP NEAR MELBOURNE
SOUTHWARD WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU DAYBREAK. CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDER MENTION ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST THRU THIS PERIOD. ANY
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. WE CAN
EXPECT THICKENING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES OVERNIGHT
(NORTH --> SOUTH) AS DEEP MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT 5-10 MPH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLOWLY TIGHTENS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE M-U60S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
TONIGHT...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DUE TO
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FORECAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A BIG RAIN-PRODUCING EVENT,
THOUGH LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SORT OF LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, SO HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 10 MPH BY SUNRISE.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE, BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY. ANOTHER NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS, SO INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY AFTER 10 AM. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW IN THIS, HOWEVER, ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AGAIN,
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BIG RAIN-PRODUCING
EVENT BASED ON THE GUIDANCE, BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL LOCALLY KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN A LONG
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO CLEARER CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOWER 80S SOUTHWARD. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING
INTO THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DROP
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY-TUESDAY (PREVIOUS MODIFIED)...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO SUNDAY WHILE VEERING TO OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. MINIMUM WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS WITH THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S FORECAST
SUNDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A RESULT OF THE SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTING EASTWARD DUE TO THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PARTICULARLY EXERCISE CAUTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE VOLUSIA WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE BREVARD
WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CAPE.
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL WATERS, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 4 TO 8 FEET
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST SEAS FOCUSED ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM WATERS. THESE POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. BY SATURDAY, THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 3 TO
6 FEET. SUNDAY, WINDS VEER TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST 09Z BEFORE MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVE FROM
NW TO SE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ON WED. THESE DEGRADED CIGS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VCSH/SHRA AT TIMES, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WIND
SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM SSW TO THE NW AFTER 00Z THU.
SPEEDS INCREASE UP TO 10-14 KT AFTER 16Z WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT. A BRIEF LULL IN THE EVENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 02Z THU.
TEMPOS WERE INCLUDED FOR SITES WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS
OF SHRA. HOWEVER, BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS, MAY NEED TO
BACK DOWN TO JUST VCSH IN FUTURE TAFS. SLOWLY IMPROVING CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z THU., FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 55 68 45 / 60 0 0 0
MCO 80 57 68 48 / 60 0 0 0
MLB 81 60 70 48 / 60 10 0 0
VRB 81 62 73 48 / 60 10 0 0
LEE 81 53 67 45 / 60 0 0 0
SFB 80 55 68 45 / 60 0 0 0
ORL 81 57 69 48 / 60 0 0 0
FPR 81 62 73 48 / 60 10 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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