530
FXUS62 KMLB 201017
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
517 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 516 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO
AND INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE OVER WEST FLORIDA
BEFORE REACHING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED
SLIGHTLY AND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST INTO
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, HREF MODEL GUIDANCE,
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS RESULTING IN LITTLE INSTABILITY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS (POPS ~ 40-60%) ARE FORECAST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF
I-4 AND INTO THE MID-MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF
I-4 AND OVER THE TREASURE COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING THIS
EVENING OVER THE TREASURE COAST AROUND SUNSET. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH SHOWERS WILL BE MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30-40MPH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25MPH ARE FORECAST TO VEER NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST TODAY.
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S ARE FORECAST OVER THE TREASURE COAST WITH THE LOW TO MID
50S FORECAST TO THE NORTH.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE
FORECAST WITH SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10-15MPH WITH GUST TO 25MPH. LOWS IN THE LOW 40
TO UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY-TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST US FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN COOLER AIR INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY AT
12-18MPH WITH GUST TO 25-30MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY AND THEN ONSHORE FROM THE EAST INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST WITH
SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WITH THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY
AND THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST US, IN ADDITION TO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AS WINDS VEER ONSHORE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES
ARE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
INCREASING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES INTO NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS WITH THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S
FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POOR TO
HAZARDOUS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON (POPS ~ 60-70%) WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40MPH. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 15-20KTS ARE FORECAST TO VEER NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE AT 15-25KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
3-5FT TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT
OFFSHORE(20-60NM) INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-34KTS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AT 6-12KTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD
TO 4-6FT NEARSHORE WITH UP TO 6-8FT OFFSHORE (20-60NM) THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND
5-6FT OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO 2-4FT ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST 09Z BEFORE MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVE FROM
NW TO SE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ON WED. THESE DEGRADED CIGS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VCSH/SHRA AT TIMES, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WIND
SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM SSW TO THE NW AFTER 00Z THU.
SPEEDS INCREASE UP TO 10-14 KT AFTER 16Z WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT. A BRIEF LULL IN THE EVENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 02Z THU.
TEMPOS WERE INCLUDED FOR SITES WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS
OF SHRA. HOWEVER, BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS, MAY NEED TO
BACK DOWN TO JUST VCSH IN FUTURE TAFS. SLOWLY IMPROVING CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z THU., FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 516 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
COOL AND DRY AIR IS EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WITH THE LOW TO UPPER 30S TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ARE FORECAST
OVER ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT
10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING
INTO THE WEEKEND. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE POOR TO GENERALLY
GOOD TODAY AND GENERALLY GOOD TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 53 68 44 / 50 0 0 0
MCO 80 56 68 46 / 50 10 0 0
MLB 81 58 70 45 / 60 10 0 0
VRB 81 61 73 46 / 60 10 0 0
LEE 81 53 67 44 / 40 0 0 0
SFB 80 55 68 44 / 50 10 0 0
ORL 81 57 69 46 / 50 10 0 0
FPR 81 61 73 45 / 60 10 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-
552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...SCHAPER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page