148
FXUS62 KMLB 201144
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
644 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 516 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WITH ROUGH SURF TODAY
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND SENSITIVE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO AND INTO THE
WEEKEND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 516 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE OVER WEST FLORIDA BEFORE
REACHING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY AND
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, HREF MODEL GUIDANCE, AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS RESULTING IN LITTLE INSTABILITY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS (POPS ~ 40-60%) ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF I-4 AND INTO THE MID-
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 AND OVER THE
TREASURE COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING
OVER THE TREASURE COAST AROUND SUNSET. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH SHOWERS
WILL BE MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-
40MPH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25MPH ARE
FORECAST TO VEER NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST TODAY.
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE
FORECAST OVER THE TREASURE COAST WITH THE LOW TO MID 50S FORECAST TO
THE NORTH.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE
FORECAST WITH SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10-15MPH WITH GUST TO 25MPH. LOWS IN THE LOW 40
TO UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY-TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST US FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN COOLER AIR INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY AT 12-
18MPH WITH GUST TO 25-30MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY AND THEN ONSHORE FROM THE EAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST WITH SUNNY SKIES
FRIDAY WITH THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST US, IN ADDITION TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS
WINDS VEER ONSHORE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
SUNDAY AND THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR
60 DEGREES INTO NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS WITH
THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 516 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POOR TO
HAZARDOUS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON (POPS
~ 60-70%) WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40MPH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20KTS ARE
FORECAST TO VEER NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AT 15-25KTS OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 3-5FT TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 4-6FT
NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE(20-60NM) INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-34KTS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AT 6-12KTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-6FT
NEARSHORE WITH UP TO 6-8FT OFFSHORE (20-60NM) THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 2-4FT ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CIGS 15Z THRU 00Z. A FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT AFTER 00Z THU. SSW WINDS AROUND 10-13 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT, VEERING WSW BY 21Z AND THEN NW BY 03Z
THU. VCSH WAS INCLUDED WITH REMOVAL OF PREVIOUS TEMPOS BASED ON
RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING CIGS ARE FORECAST
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 00Z-06Z THU.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 516 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
COOL AND DRY AIR IS EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WITH THE LOW TO UPPER 30S TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ARE FORECAST
OVER ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT
10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 53 68 44 / 50 0 0 0
MCO 80 56 68 46 / 50 10 0 0
MLB 81 58 70 45 / 60 10 0 0
VRB 81 61 73 46 / 60 10 0 0
LEE 81 53 67 44 / 40 0 0 0
SFB 80 55 68 44 / 50 10 0 0
ORL 81 57 69 46 / 50 10 0 0
FPR 81 61 73 45 / 60 10 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-
552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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