655
FXUS62 KMLB 201807
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
107 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 516 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WITH ROUGH SURF TODAY
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAPABLE OF MODERATE RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO
AND INTO THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 911 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO START ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, MAINLY DUE TO A LARGE SWATH OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED MORNING POPS BECAUSE OF
THIS BUT SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY MIDDAY. TAKING A
BROADER VIEW OF THE REGION, A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXTENDS FROM THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARDS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA, PUSHING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY NOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OCCURRING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THUNDER PROBABILITY
REMAINS VERY LOW, WITH NO DISCERNIBLE MENTION, HOWEVER A ROGUE
LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDITION OF
DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY SUNSET, WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
VEER WESTERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A BLANKET OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
IN THE LOWER 80S, WITH THE START OF A COOLER TREND ARRIVING LATE
TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I-4.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 516 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE OVER WEST FLORIDA BEFORE
REACHING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY AND
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, HREF MODEL GUIDANCE, AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS RESULTING IN LITTLE INSTABILITY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS (POPS ~ 40-60%) ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF I-4 AND INTO THE MID-
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 AND OVER THE
TREASURE COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING
OVER THE TREASURE COAST AROUND SUNSET. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH SHOWERS
WILL BE MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-
40MPH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25MPH ARE
FORECAST TO VEER NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST TODAY.
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE
FORECAST OVER THE TREASURE COAST WITH THE LOW TO MID 50S FORECAST TO
THE NORTH.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE
FORECAST WITH SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10-15MPH WITH GUST TO 25MPH. LOWS IN THE LOW 40
TO UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY-TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST US FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN COOLER AIR INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY AT 12-
18MPH WITH GUST TO 25-30MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY AND THEN ONSHORE FROM THE EAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST WITH SUNNY SKIES
FRIDAY WITH THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST US, IN ADDITION TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS
WINDS VEER ONSHORE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
SUNDAY AND THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR
60 DEGREES INTO NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS WITH
THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 516 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POOR TO
HAZARDOUS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON (POPS
~ 60-70%) WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40MPH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20KTS ARE
FORECAST TO VEER NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AT 15-25KTS OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 3-5FT TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 4-6FT
NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE(20-60NM) INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-34KTS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AT 6-12KTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-6FT
NEARSHORE WITH UP TO 6-8FT OFFSHORE (20-60NM) THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 2-4FT ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
CIGS HAVE DROPPED INTO MVFR RANGE WITH SOME SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS
THE ORLANDO AREA TERMINALS. TEMPOS ARE BEING ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS LOWERING DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, FEW SHRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
OUR TERMINALS. COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN NW WINDS TONIGHT WHICH
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES (15-25KT). VFR IS FORECAST TO RESUME
IN ALL AREAS AFTER 21/00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 54 68 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 56 67 47 67 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 59 71 47 69 / 20 0 0 0
VRB 61 73 47 70 / 20 0 0 0
LEE 53 67 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 54 68 45 67 / 10 0 0 0
ORL 56 69 47 68 / 10 0 0 0
FPR 61 73 46 70 / 20 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-
552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...HEIL
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