702
FXUS62 KMLB 211517
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1017 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
- A STRONG, SOUTHWARD-FLOWING LONGSHORE CURRENT IS EXPECTED AT
AREA BEACHES, ALONG WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
- SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER, DRIER AIR ARRIVES TODAY AND LASTS INTO
THE WEEKEND
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY, AND SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW. GOES-16 TPW IMAGERY IS SHOWING PW VALUES HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN TO LESS THAN 0.50 INCHES. THIS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY, BUT EVEN WITH
FULL SUNSHINE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
FROM THE ORLANDO METRO AREA NORTHWARD AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
FARTHER SOUTH.
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE AT THE BEACHES, WHERE THE GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A STRONG SOUTHWARD FLOWING LONGSHORE
CURRENT. THESE CURRENTS CAN QUICKLY PUSH SWIMMERS INTO DEEPER
WATER, MAKING THEM MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRENGTHENING EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. IN RESPONSE,
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IS ALSO ON OUR
DOORSTEP, WITH GOES-DERIVED PW ALREADY INDICATING PW LESS THAN
0.50" PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S NORTH OF I-4 TO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
THESE VALUES WILL FALL QUICKER INTO THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH
SUNRISE, WHILE A GRADUAL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S IS
FORECAST BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES, REACHING
20-25 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS AT THE COAST, A STRONG, SOUTHWARD-
FLOWING LONGSHORE CURRENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY. CURRENTS LIKE THESE CAN QUICKLY PUSH SWIMMERS INTO DEEPER
WATER, MAKING THEM MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT. REMEMBER TO ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD!
CONDITIONS REMAIN BREEZY AT THE COAST TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW
USHERS IN EVEN COOLER AIR BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST, WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS STAY IN THE LOW 50S. A
20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SUB-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES EXISTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-4, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 00Z HREF PROBABILITIES.
THIS WEEKEND...DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY IS ANOTHER BREEZY TO GUSTY DAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH, PEAKING AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES
(ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST). DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 60S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BUT RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (MID 70S) ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER FLORIDA. THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL, SATURDAY, WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH A LIGHT NW BREEZE TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF ECFL.
NOTE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD DIP BELOW 40 DEGREES BRIEFLY ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND RESUMES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AS MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SLOW TO RECOVER UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE BECOMES ESTABLISHED AS DAYTIME
HIGHS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. MORNING LOWS MONDAY
WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH OF I-4, REBOUNDING
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODEL OUTPUT DIVERGES REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH HAS DOWNSTREAM IMPLICATIONS
REGARDING WHAT SENSIBLE WEATHER WE EXPERIENCE FROM THANKSGIVING
DAY ONWARD. RIGHT NOW, WE CAN ANTICIPATE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY, ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT...QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
FRESHEN AND BUILD SEAS. EARLY THIS MORNING, BUOY 41009 WAS
REPORTING NW WINDS AROUND 17 KT, GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT. FARTHER
NORTH, BUOY 41117 INDICATED QUICKLY INCREASING SEAS AROUND 6 FT.
THIS NORTHERLY WIND SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT NEARSHORE
AND 8-9 FT OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL
PICK UP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LEGS OF THE ADJACENT
CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS (OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES).
FRIDAY-MONDAY...HAZARDOUS BOATING IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH MUCH
OF FRIDAY, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DECREASE. 10-14 KT NW FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
ON SATURDAY, FALLING BELOW 10 KT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SEAS
FRIDAY AROUND 5-8 FT IN THE GULF STREAM FALL BELOW 7 FT SATURDAY
MORNING, DECREASING FURTHER TO 2-3 FT BY SUNDAY. FAVORABLE BOATING
LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND LOCAL WATERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BREEZY NW WINDS TODAY, WITH GUSTS
20-25KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AROUND 10KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 69 45 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 68 48 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 71 48 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 73 47 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 68 46 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 69 46 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 69 48 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 74 47 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...LEAHY
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