497
FXUS62 KMLB 160524
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1224 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
- DANGEROUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH AND DUNE EROSION DUE TO BATTERING SURF,
PARTICULARLY AROUND HIGH TIDE.
- BREEZY WEATHER PERSISTS, ALONG WITH A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS RETURN ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
- BALMY DECEMBER WEATHER HANGS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED.
MUCH QUIETER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 5-10 MPH INLAND TO
10-15 MPH ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE'RE STILL SEEING GUSTS 20-25
MPH ALONG THE COAST, IT'S CERTAINLY AN IMPROVEMENT FROM THE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH 24-HOURS AGO. A SLOT OF DRIER AIR WITH
PWATS LESS THAN 1" ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THAT
KNOCKED CLOUD COVER DOWN AND REDUCED RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY IS SLOWING SHIFTING WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, WITH A
FOLLOWING AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF ISOLATED LIGHT
MARINE SHOWERS OVER THE LAST HOUR CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR, AND THIS
TREND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS RETURNING BY MORNING,
AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER
MOISTURE. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS RANGE FROM THE U50S-L60S ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE U60S-70 ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
WHILE WINDS ARE MORE QUIET TONIGHT, HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS, HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINING IN EFFECT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
TONIGHT-MONDAY...STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO MONDAY, WITH RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY, BUT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ELEVATED. E/NE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH TONIGHT, EXCEPT
REMAINING UP TO 10-15 MPH ALONG COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
WINDS THEN PICK BACK UP AND BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN INTO MONDAY,
WITH SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE BREEZY E/NE
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL STEADILY PICK UP INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. POPS RANGE
FROM 20-30 PERCENT FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT, INCREASING
TO 30-50 PERCENT ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY/TREASURE COAST ON MONDAY AND
20-30 PERCENT OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S TONIGHT AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES MONDAY.
SWELLS WILL BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY INTO MONDAY, BUT THEY WILL STILL
PRODUCE NUMEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE BREAKING
WAVES OF 5-8 FEET AT AREA BEACHES TOMORROW. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
ENTERING THE WATER IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED!
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES AND LINGERS NEAR THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FAST EASTWARD MOVING S/W TROUGH ALOFT THEN SHIFTS
A WEAKER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS LESS BREEZY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO
1.6-1.8 INCHES. THIS ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES (POPS UP TO 40-60
PERCENT). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE, BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY INCREASES AS WELL THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS, ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
THEN LOWER RAIN CHANCES INTO THURSDAY TO 20-40 PERCENT.
TEMPS REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS FALL
SLIGHTLY TO MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S/LOW 60S THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) CONFIDENCE
HAS IMPROVED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION, ANCHORED BY A
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND MEAN RIDGING OVER
THE ROCKIES. THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO SWEEP
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE STATE, ENDING RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY, WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE DIGGING THE EAST COAST
TROUGH, MOST MEMBERS INDICATE AT LEAST ONE ADDITIONAL DRY COLD FRONT
AS WE MOVE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS LATTER FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY APPRECIABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION. SO, MUCH COOLER
WEATHER IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THE EXTENT OF THE COLD REMAINS
IN QUESTION. THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE 14/12Z ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS, WITH
NEARLY 35% FORECASTING A DEEPER (COLDER) TROUGH. THERE IS AT LEAST A
LOW RISK OF IMPACTFUL COLD TEMPS (WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S AND/OR
FROST-FREEZE CONDITIONS) EITHER NEXT SUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNING
(22ND/23RD). THE EPS REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH ON THE COLD,
SHOWING A 20% CHANCE OF A FREEZE OVER THE INTERIOR ON THE 23RD (GEFS
CHANCES ARE < 10%). WE STILL DO NOT EXPECT THE COLD TO HANG AROUND;
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A WARM-UP TOWARD CHRISTMAS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
TONIGHT-MONDAY...A FRESH EAST-NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WITH SWELLS UP TO 10-13
FEET TONIGHT, DECREASING TO 8-11 FEET INTO MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THESE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ONSHORE WINDS AND SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT WILL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH SEAS UP TO 6-8 FEET ON TUESDAY AND THEN FALLING TO
5-7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NW AROUND 10-15 KNOTS INTO LATE
WEEK. THIS MAY CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS AT TIMES UP TO 6 FEET
OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS INCREASE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK
AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLD-SCT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ONTO THE COAST FROM TIME TO TIME WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND HIGHER WIND GUSTS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO THE INTERIOR. "VICINITY" WORDING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR COASTAL
TAF SITES WITH TEMPO GROUPS AS NECESSARY. GENERALLY VFR, BUT WE
COULD SEE LOCAL MVFR, ESP INVOF SHOWERY PRECIP. NERLY WINDS 5-10
KTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 10-15 KTS AT THE COAST (FEW HIGHER
GUSTS) WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS INLAND AND 15 KTS NEAR THE COAST
WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 64 77 65 / 20 20 40 20
MCO 80 65 81 66 / 20 20 50 20
MLB 79 67 79 67 / 40 40 60 40
VRB 80 69 81 68 / 50 50 60 50
LEE 80 63 81 65 / 10 10 30 10
SFB 79 64 80 66 / 20 20 50 20
ORL 80 64 81 66 / 20 20 50 20
FPR 79 69 80 68 / 50 50 60 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ141-154-
159-164-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ550-552-555-
570-572-575.
UPDATE...HALEY
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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