222
FXUS62 KMLB 170018
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
718 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEAT RAIN
BANDS MAY LEAD TO STANDING WATER IN URBAN AREAS ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST AS WE BEGIN THIS
WEEK, INCLUDING HIGH SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS ARE LIKELY BY MID-WEEK AS WINDS RELAX.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH SOME LOCALES
REACHING THE LOWER 80S. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
HORIZON BY THE WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD PERSISTS
THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY BEFORE IT STARTS SLIDING EAST. THIS
SUPPORTS ONSHORE WINDS PUSHING MOISTURE ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE CWA EACH AFTERNOON. AMPLE
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S DURING THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY,
ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LARGE
BREAKING WAVES 5-8FT. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD REMAIN
CAUTIOUS WITH HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING.
LATER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT BRINGS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY OVER THE WATER. THIS FEATURE QUICKLY MOVES AWAY AS
SHORTWAVE DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, DRY AND COLD AIR PUSHES BEHIND
IT AND RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DROP GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS GO DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE KEEPING HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE SOME STEADY IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. LENGTHY SWELL PERIODS INTO TOMORROW FURTHER INCREASE THESE
HAZARDS NEAR OUR INLETS. EASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS HAVE PEAKED, BUT
THEY WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SEAS 7-12 FT
TODAY, SUBSIDING TO 5-8 FT ON TUESDAY AND 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY.
INTRACOASTAL AND INSHORE BOATING WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS WELL,
BUT AT LEAST A MODERATE CHOP WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEK, AND A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK AS
SHOWERS BECOME MORE ISOLATED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
TAFS BEGIN WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS WITH IFR CIGS FORECAST AT TIMES
WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. SCAT'D TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS & ISOL'D TO
SCAT'D LIGHTNING STORMS (AFTER 14Z/15Z TUE) ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TEMPO TSRA GROUPS EXIST BETWEEN 16-20Z AT THE COASTAL TAFS
S OF KDAB. ENE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT FOR KSUA)
BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE E INTO TUE PM AT 8-12KTS & GUSTS TO 15-20KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 77 65 77 / 30 40 30 50
MCO 65 81 66 80 / 20 50 20 60
MLB 67 79 67 78 / 30 50 40 60
VRB 69 81 68 80 / 40 60 50 70
LEE 64 81 65 80 / 10 30 20 40
SFB 65 80 66 79 / 20 40 30 50
ORL 65 81 66 80 / 20 40 20 50
FPR 69 80 68 79 / 40 60 50 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...LAW
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