533
FXUS62 KMLB 170535
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1235 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEAT RAIN
BANDS MAY LEAD TO STANDING WATER IN URBAN AREAS ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST AS WE BEGIN THIS
WEEK, INCLUDING HIGH SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS ARE LIKELY BY MID-WEEK AS WINDS RELAX.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH SOME LOCALES
REACHING THE LOWER 80S. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
HORIZON BY THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND ADDED LIGHTNING
BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS SHOWER ACTIVITY
TENDED TO OVERPERFORM, PUSHING FURTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED, AND EVEN PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. VOLUSIA COUNTY HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY TARGET OF
THE THESE IMPACTS DUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OR
MCV. SHOWERS PIVOTING AROUND A VORTEX IN SOUTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY
HAVE BEEN SEEN ON KMLB RADAR THE LAST FEW HOURS, WHICH IS WHERE
ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 1.5" HAVE OCCURRED DUE TO
TRAINING HEAVIER SHOWERS. SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL REDUCE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT AT LEAST 20 PCT POPS AREAWIDE, UP TO AROUND 40 PCT ALONG THE
COAST. STRATUS AND FOG HAS BEEN ONGOING TO OUR NORTH MUCH OF THE
DAY, AND THERE'S DECENT CONSENSUS FROM MODELS THAT SOME COULD
DEVELOP THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF ECFL, SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST, BUT EXPECT TO MOSTLY SEE STRATUS DUE
TO WINDS REMAINING 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN ALL RANGES OF THE
60S, TO AROUND 70 IN COASTAL MARTIN COUNTY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD PERSISTS
THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY BEFORE IT STARTS SLIDING EAST. THIS
SUPPORTS ONSHORE WINDS PUSHING MOISTURE ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE CWA EACH AFTERNOON. AMPLE
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S DURING THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY,
ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LARGE
BREAKING WAVES 5-8FT. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD REMAIN
CAUTIOUS WITH HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING.
LATER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT BRINGS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY OVER THE WATER. THIS FEATURE QUICKLY MOVES AWAY AS
SHORTWAVE DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, DRY AND COLD AIR PUSHES BEHIND
IT AND RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DROP GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS GO DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE KEEPING HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE SOME STEADY IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. LENGTHY SWELL PERIODS INTO TOMORROW FURTHER INCREASE THESE
HAZARDS NEAR OUR INLETS. EASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS HAVE PEAKED, BUT
THEY WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SEAS 7-12 FT
TODAY, SUBSIDING TO 5-8 FT ON TUESDAY AND 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY.
INTRACOASTAL AND INSHORE BOATING WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS WELL,
BUT AT LEAST A MODERATE CHOP WILL PERSIST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEK, AND A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK AS
SHOWERS BECOME MORE ISOLATED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH
PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.
OVERNIGHT MVFR CEILINGS MOST LIKELY FROM KDAB-KLEE, POTENTIALLY
EXTENDING TOWARD KSFB-KMCO-KISM FOR A PERIOD GIVEN LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH TIMING
AND COVERAGE CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST. OPTED FOR VCSH WITH
TEMPO TSRA ACROSS SPACE AND TREASURE COAST TERMINALS (KTIX- KSUA)
WHERE GUIDANCE FOCUSES AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION - THOUGH ALL
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TERMINALS STAND A 50-60% OF SEEING SHOWERS AT
SOME POINT DURING THE DAY TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 64 78 62 / 50 30 60 50
MCO 80 66 79 66 / 50 20 60 50
MLB 78 66 78 63 / 60 50 70 60
VRB 81 67 80 65 / 60 60 70 70
LEE 81 65 80 63 / 40 20 50 40
SFB 80 66 80 64 / 50 30 60 40
ORL 81 66 81 65 / 50 20 60 40
FPR 80 66 79 64 / 60 60 70 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ550-552-
555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
UPDATE...HALEY
AVIATION...ULRICH
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